Key investment points:
Macro: at the international level, the fifth round of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine was constructive and the conflict eased; At the same time, the interest rate spread between China and the United States has narrowed significantly, and the ten-year bond interest rate spread between the two countries is still within 50bp. At the Chinese level, affected by the epidemic, PMI recorded 49.5% in March, down 0.7% from the previous value. Both production and demand were significantly impacted: at the production end, enterprises were affected by the epidemic control, and production and operation were restrained; At the same time, the enterprise's sales are unfavorable, the inventory backlog increases, and the willingness to replenish the inventory is not strong, which further impacts the supply. On the demand side, household consumption and enterprise investment are restrained. At the same time, affected by international factors, the sub item of PMI new export orders in March decreased by 1.8% compared with the previous value, the short-term export momentum was weakened, and the inflationary pressure increased. On the one hand, the Fed's continued interest rate hike is misplaced with China's monetary policy cycle. On the other hand, the dislocation correction of supply and demand outside China has weakened the substitution efficiency of exports. Since the end of February, the rise of international oil prices has posed certain inflationary pressure on China. At present, the international situation is complex and grim, and China's economic development is facing great pressure. The national Standing Committee stressed that "we should expand effective financial investment and set targets without relaxation"; The regular meeting of monetary policy requires "strengthening cross cyclical and counter cyclical adjustment, strengthening the implementation of prudent monetary policy and taking the initiative to respond". The easing window still exists. High frequency data show that at the end of March and early April, the economic growth rate still continued to decline year-on-year. It is expected that the GDP growth rate in the first quarter may be slightly lower than the target center of 5.5%. At the same time, combined with the significantly enhanced steady growth signal, the low point of economic growth in the first quarter or the whole year is expected to rise at the beginning of the second quarter.
Stocks: last week, major global indexes were dominated by shocks, and most European and American markets closed up slightly. The Chinese market generally closed up. The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and other indexes were more resilient, while the science and innovation board 50 and China Stock Exchange 1000 index fell. The average daily turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 927.5 billion yuan, up from + 9.4% last week. Last week, 22 industries rose and 8 industries fell; Real estate, building materials, consumer services and other industries led the increase; Electronics, communications, military and other industries led the decline. Shipping, Fujian Free Trade Zone, real estate and other concepts led the increase; Concepts such as heat dissipation, third-generation semiconductors and lithium extraction from salt lakes led the decline. Affected by the epidemic, the PMI fell below the boom and bust line in March, the downward pressure on the economy increased, the policy continued to accelerate the force and steady growth, and the upside down yield of US Treasury bonds may indicate the future economic recession. The first quarter economic data will be released in April. Due to the impact of the epidemic, economic growth may be lower than the policy target level, and China's steady growth policy may be further strengthened. At the same time, the epidemic prevention and control may be effective, but the negative impact on the economy still exists. The situation abroad is still uncertain. The Fed may raise interest rates by 50 basis points, and the situation in Russia and Ukraine is in a stalemate. The policy bottom of Shanghai Composite Index 3000 has been relatively clear, and the market is expected to continue to explore the market bottom in April. It is suggested to maintain 60% of positions, focusing on sectors such as steady growth, price rise and risk avoidance, such as real estate, construction, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, medicine, precious metals, etc.
Bonds: the bond market returned to calm last week, with yields rising first and falling later. Last week, the LPR was not adjusted, the US bond interest rate rose sharply, the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds and CDB rose slightly from Monday to Tuesday, the wind direction of the bond market turned from Wednesday, and the bond market rebounded slightly on Thursday and Friday in anticipation of the cross quarter investment of the people's Bank of China. There are no major events on the whole, and there is no main line in the short-term sawing of the bond market. The yield at the perimeter end fluctuated little, the yield curve continued to steepen, and the capital surface was stable and loose. China suddenly encountered the strongest round of epidemic in history, and the bond market is expected to rebound in the short term under the condition of weak fundamentals and expectations of monetary policy. The recovery of the economy before and after the current round of epidemic has caused some interference to the observation of economic trends. In the short term, it has weakened the concern of the bond market that the obstruction of "wide credit" and weak real estate demand have dragged down the economic situation. The evolution of this main line is still uncertain, and will continue to dominate the medium-term trend of the bond market in the second quarter.
Asset allocation: stocks 25%, bonds 25%, commodities 25%, REITs 25%.
Risk warning: policy and economic data prediction are not as expected, and unexpected risk events, etc; The large asset allocation simulation portfolio is only used for back testing, and the past rate of return does not represent the future situation.
