Ping An View:
Real economy: the situation of epidemic prevention and control this week is still grim, industrial operating rates are divided, and industrial products are destocked; The margin of commercial housing sales has warmed up, and the deregulation of real estate regulation is expected to heat up; Most of the black commodity futures and spot commodities continued to rise, and Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) wholesale prices rose. 1) From last Saturday to this Friday (March 26 to April 1), a total of 10900 new confirmed cases were added in 28 provinces and autonomous regions such as Jilin, which was lower than 13100 new cases in 22 provinces and autonomous regions from March 19 to March 25. However, the number of asymptomatic infections increased from 19800 to 42000 in the same period. 2) Industrial operating rate differentiation. Among them, the operating rate of Tangshan blast furnace related to black goods was 52.4%, unchanged month on month; The operating rate of coking enterprises was 78.1%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points over last week. The operating rate of petroleum asphalt units and mill operation rate related to infrastructure construction decreased by 2.2 percentage points and increased by 3.4 percentage points respectively month on month, both at the low point in the same period in recent years. The operating rates of semi steel tires and all steel tires related to the automobile industry chain increased by 2.4 and 2.7 percentage points respectively month on month. At present, they are relatively less affected by the epidemic. 3) Industrial products to inventory. Among the finished products, the rebar factory warehouse + social warehouse fell 0.5% month on month this week, and the electrolytic aluminum inventory fell 0.2% month on month last week. Among the raw material inventory, the port iron ore inventory decreased by 0.8% compared with last week, and the coking coal inventory of independent coking plant can be used for 15.1 days, which is 0.1 days shorter than last week. 4) The margin of commercial housing sales has warmed up, and the deregulation of real estate regulation is expected to heat up. This week, the average daily sales area of commercial houses in 30 cities increased by 9.2% month on month; Last week, the land supply area, transaction area and premium rate of Baicheng increased month on month. From the trend of the real estate sector and black commodities, the market has strong expectations for further relaxation of real estate. 5) The price of black goods is strong. Black series commodity futures rose in an all-round way this week. Among them, thermal coal, coking coal, coke, rebar and iron ore futures rose by 6.5%, 4.4%, 7.1%, 2.9% and 5.8% month on month respectively. The spot price of corresponding varieties of thermal coal has not been announced yet, the coke is flat, and the other three rose. The expectation of deregulation of real estate regulation is an important driving factor. This week, the Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) wholesale price 200 index rose by 1.7% month on month. The wholesale prices of fruits, vegetables and eggs in Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) rose by 4.8%, 3.6% and 1.5% month on month respectively, and the wholesale price of pork rose slightly by 0.1% month on month.
Capital market: this week, China's stock, bond and foreign exchange market strengthened simultaneously. On Friday, the exchange rate of r2.007 was significantly lower than that of the previous quarter, and the exchange rate of r2.007 was significantly lower than that of the previous quarter. In the stock market, the rising expectation of China's steady growth has driven the strength of blue chip sectors such as finance and real estate. In addition, there are signs of easing geopolitical events and positive signals from China US audit supervision, which has driven the net inflow of northward funds of 22.9 billion yuan this week. Most of the main stock indexes of A-Shares rebounded, and the performance of blue chip is better than growth. In the bond market, the total amount and structure of manufacturing PMI of the Bureau of statistics in March were weak, and the expectation of standard reduction in the recent market was strong, driving the yields of treasury bonds of all maturities to decline. Due to loose capital, the yield curve showed a steep downward shift. In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar index fell, and the onshore and offshore RMB appreciated against the US dollar. We believe that the short-term improvement of China US audit and regulatory cooperation and geopolitical events will help to improve the market's risk appetite for RMB assets.
Risk tip: the steady growth is not as strong as expected, the epidemic in China is spreading at multiple points, and geopolitical conflicts are escalating
