ECI index: as of April 3, 2022, the ECI supply index this week was 49.81%, down 0.1% from last week; The ECI demand index was 49.40%, down 0.06% from last week. In terms of sub items, the ECI investment index was 49.32%, down 0.19% from last week; The ECI consumption index was 49.24%, down 0.02% from last week; The ECI export index was 49.62%, down 0.02% from last week.
Supply side: as of April 1, the vehicle freight flow index has fallen to 92.49, of which it was only 91.25 on March 29, a new low since the resumption of work and production in the Spring Festival. In addition, important high-frequency data, including blast furnace operating rate, PTA industrial chain load rate and power plant load rate in 7 coastal provinces, showed an obvious downward trend.
Demand side: the congestion index of 100 cities and the subway passenger volume of 10 cities have decreased significantly compared with the first ten days of March, which has significantly affected the clustered industries such as accommodation, catering, sports and entertainment, and caused a serious drag on consumption.
Eli index: in April, the central bank may effectively focus on the liability side cost of commercial banks, open the downward space of asset side interest rate, continue to reduce the financing cost of the real economy and promote the improvement of liquidity of the real economy.
Risk warning: the uncertainty of epidemic situation is still high; The downward range of consumption exceeded expectations; Changes in monetary policy were less than expected.
