In March, manufacturing and non manufacturing PMI fell below the boom and bust line; The central bank held a regular meeting on monetary policy in the first quarter. The order of asset allocation of major categories: bulk bonds stocks currencies.
Review of macro highlights
Economic data: in March, the manufacturing PMI, non manufacturing PMI and comprehensive PMI were 49.5%, 48.4% and 48.8% respectively.
Highlights: the State Council has decided to set up a special additional deduction of individual income tax for infant care under the age of 3; The executive meeting of the State Council made arrangements to make good use of government bonds and expand effective investment; The central office and the State Council Office issued the opinions on promoting the construction of social credit system and high-quality development and promoting the formation of a new development pattern; The central bank held a regular policy meeting in the first quarter.
Asset performance review
RMB asset prices rebounded. This week, the CSI 300 index rose 2.43%, and the CSI 300 stock index futures rose 2.66%; Coking coal futures rose 5.06% this week, and the main iron ore contract rose 7.98% this week; The expected yield of financial management of joint-stock banks closed at 1.92%, and the 7-day annualized yield of yu'e Bao rose 1bp to 1.97%; The yield of ten-year Treasury bonds fell 2bp to 2.77%, and the active ten-year Treasury bond futures rose 0.19% this week.
Asset allocation suggestions
Asset allocation: bulk bonds stocks currencies. As of Friday, the yields of 10-year US bonds and two-year US bonds were upside down by 6BP. With s the upside down of US bond interest rates, the market's expectation of economic recession began to heat up. On the one hand, at the interest rate meeting at the beginning of March, the Federal Reserve has lowered the forecast of US economic growth in 2022 to 2.8%. Recently, the German Economic Advisory Committee has also significantly lowered the forecast of German economic growth in 2022 to 1.8%. On the other hand, Europe and the United States are facing "record high" price increases. The core PCE price index of the United States in February rose 5.4% year-on-year, a new high since 1983, and the CPI of the eurozone in March rose 7.5% year-on-year, a record high. The uncertainty of the prospect of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will continue to affect the global energy and Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) supply for some time in the future. However, considering that the employment data continues to improve after the elimination of epidemic prevention and control in Europe and the United States, the recovery in the short term is still the most important basic economic assumption.
Risk tip: global inflation is rising too fast; Liquidity flows back to US debt; The global impact of co19-vid has expanded.
