Reading guide
At present, China's economy is facing four major risks outside China: the rebound of the epidemic, the decline of real estate, imported inflation and the tightening of monetary policies in Europe and the United States. The rebound of the epidemic has led to the contraction of supply and demand, and the sluggish consumption, especially the service industry, has been impacted again; Imported inflation has been reflected in the rapidly rising PMI price sub index, and the operating costs of small and medium-sized enterprises have increased; The tightening of global liquidity and the dislocation of China US policies will lead to capital outflow and the suppression of capital markets. Affected by this, the GDP growth rate in the first quarter fell below 5% (expected to be 4.8%, which will be lower if the epidemic continues to spread and the closure continues). Low and middle-income people and small and micro enterprises are facing survival difficulties, and the pressure on people's livelihood has increased significantly. The top priority is to take active measures to curb the economic downturn. Fiscal and monetary policies should support the economy with greater efforts. At the same time, we should do a good job in social security for low - and middle-income people seriously affected by the epidemic.
Risk tips: the rebound of the epidemic exceeded expectations, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine exceeded expectations, and the tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve exceeded expectations
