In March, the PMI of the national manufacturing industry bucked the trend and fell offline, with both supply and demand declining, which has also been confirmed by the meso high-frequency data since March: on the one hand, the terminal demand continued to be weak, the growth rate of real estate sales of all caliber decreased in March, while the growth rate of passenger car wholesale and retail sales of the passenger car Federation both declined; On the other hand, industrial production fell at the same time, the decline in the growth rate of steel output of steel mills expanded, the growth rate of coal consumption in power generation of coastal power plants also decreased, and the operating rates of major industries such as automobile, chemical industry and steel also rose less and fell more.
Since the beginning of the year, the local epidemic pressure in China has increased, and the epidemic situation in many places has intensified, affecting most provinces in China. In early April, the number of asymptomatic infections per day exceeded 10000. Due to the faster transmission speed and stronger infectivity of this round of epidemic, the difficulty and cost of prevention and control have increased compared with the previous rounds of covid-19 epidemic. When Vice Premier sun Chunlan rushed to Shanghai to investigate the epidemic prevention and control work, he stressed that we should adhere to the general policy of "dynamic zeroing", not hesitate or waver, take a firm and decisive attitude, act quickly and effectively, and curb the spread of the epidemic in the shortest time. According to the PMI data in March, part of the impact of the epidemic on the economy has appeared. We expect that if the epidemic is difficult to ease in April, the pressure on economic growth will be the most concentrated in the second quarter, which needs further policy support. We believe that the improvement of residents' income will be the key to stabilizing the current economy.
