Since March, the epidemic has accelerated and intensified market concerns about the economy. The interpretation of the epidemic situation and the difference of macro and micro environment may make the impact and policy response of this round of epidemic situation not completely similar to the past. This paper is for reference.
What is the difference between this round of epidemic and the previous one? It spreads quickly, has many symptoms, involves a wide range of regions, and is difficult to prevent and control
The rapid spread of the virus and the large number of asymptomatic infections have led to a new high in the cumulative number of infections in this round of epidemic, involving a wide range of regions. Since the middle and late February, a new round of covid-19 epidemic has emerged in many regions of the country. As of April 3, the cumulative number of infections in the country has exceeded 120000, exceeding the epidemic in early 2020. Unlike at that time, the majority of asymptomatic infections in this round of the epidemic, accounting for about two-thirds of the total number of infected people. The infectivity of the superimposed Omicron mutant strain was greatly enhanced, making the epidemic spread rapidly. 29 new infections appeared in 31 provinces and cities across the country.
The difficulty of prevention and control has increased significantly. All localities have strengthened nucleic acid screening and flow control to speed up the realization of "dynamic clearing". In response to the epidemic situation, many areas have adopted full-time nucleic acid to quickly cut off the transmission chain; According to incomplete statistics of public data, nearly 30 prefecture level cities have a total population of more than 200 million. In some areas where the number of infected people increased rapidly, people flow control was strengthened, and temporary "city closure" measures were taken in some cities. The transmission characteristics of variant strains determine that the interpretation, prevention and control of this round of epidemic situation may be different from the previous rounds, and the subsequent changes still need to be closely tracked.
What is the difference between the current macro and micro environment and the previous one? The policy space is narrowed, and real estate enterprises and small enterprises are more vulnerable
The current policy response is more mature, but the operation space is not as good as that in the early stage of the epidemic in 2020, especially monetary policy and local finance. At the beginning of 2020, in the face of unknown epidemic and uncertain economic impact, the authorities resolutely adopted strong "stimulus" policies, quickly cut interest rates and significantly expand the fiscal deficit; After accumulating some experience, the current policy regulation is more flexible and accurate, but the overall space is narrowed. For example, the current policy interest rate and reserve ratio have been at a historically low level, and they are also facing constraints such as capital outflow; Local debt, land finance and other pressures increased.
The decline of the two "engines" of export and real estate economy has increased the pressure on the total economy, and the statements of real estate enterprises and small and medium-sized enterprises have become more fragile and their ability to resist risks has decreased. With the contraction of Global trade and the weakening of substitution effect, exports have begun to slow down, fall back or gradually increase the pressure; The real estate boom has declined sharply and the investment has been significantly dragged down. The financial statements of micro entities are much less healthy than before. For example, the cash flow repression faced by real estate enterprises has increased significantly; The repeated superposition of the previous epidemic and the continuous rise of raw material costs have led to the vulnerability of small and medium-sized enterprises and a significant decline in their ability to resist risks.
What is the difference between the impact of the epidemic and environmental changes on the economy? The structural pressure is prominent, and the total impact needs to be observed
The impact of repeated epidemics on the economy has gradually emerged. While the total economic pressure increases, the debt risk and employment pressure of micro subjects also tend to increase. The whole country's freight traffic dropped by 42.3% in March and 42.8% in June, which had a greater impact on the whole country's freight traffic in Jilin and Shanghai, respectively. Commercial housing sales were delayed, and sales in 30 large and medium-sized cities fell by nearly 50% year-on-year in March, increasing the financial pressure on real estate enterprises; The operating difficulties of small and medium-sized enterprises have increased the pressure on employment, and the unemployment rate of young people has reached a new high in the same period.
The difference between the epidemic situation and the macro and micro environment determines that the epidemic impact analysis can not simply apply the 2020 scenario, and the subsequent changes still need to be closely tracked. Although the epidemic prevention and control tends to mature, the mutated virus increases the uncertainty of epidemic interpretation, which makes the duration of this round of epidemic may be longer than in the past, and the economic impact can not be underestimated. At the same time, the epidemic situation in commercial developed areas such as Shanghai is severe, and the economic spillover impact may be relatively large. Under repeated epidemics and "triple pressure", the determination to "stabilize" the policy is very strong, and steady growth has gradually shifted to the "second step".
Risk tip: the duration of the epidemic exceeded expectations, and the policy effect was less than expected.
