Macro environment – high slightly down
As of April 1, 2022, the overall change of short-term monetary liquidity is small, and the trend continues to be good. The overall credit side rebounded significantly, waiting for the full implementation of steady growth measures. The PMI side fell significantly in China, the whole world fell, and the price of upstream resources rose sharply, significantly increasing the pressure on the cost side of enterprises.
Meso prosperity – low to maintain rebound
The current prosperity index is 18.77, up 0.74 from last week. According to the boom description model, the meso boom index rebounded significantly from the low level and maintained the rebound trend. However, the landscape MACD index continues the downward trend. The index rebounds at a low level rather than a reversal of the trend. It still needs time to change space and wait for the overall recovery of the meso boom.
Microstructure liquidity recovery
Two weeks after the market rebounded, the liquidity of the four broad-based indexes warmed up this week. The valuation and risk premium of CSI 500 have been at a very low level in history, so we can continue to strengthen the allocation; The liquidity of core assets of CSI 300 is improving, and structural risks continue to be released. The low rebound of medium view bearing is more obvious, but it is still a low rebound, rather than a reversal of the trend. From the perspective of microstructure, the structural risk is fully released and the liquidity warms up significantly. Wait for more incremental funds to enter, bringing about the reversal of the overall market trend.
Quantitative configuration signal-
According to the quantitative allocation model, the high level of the macro environment fell slightly, the credit side rebounded significantly, and the PMI side fell significantly in China. The medium view bearing maintained a rebound at a low level, but the MACD index continued its downward trend, and the index rebounded at a low level rather than a reversal of the trend. With the recovery of microstructure and liquidity, the market needs more incremental funds to enter, driving the reversal of the overall trend of the market.
Risk tips
The quantitative model has failure risk, and the historical data does not represent the future.
