Looking back on the A-share market before the festival, with the continuous return of funds to the north, the three major stock indexes slowed down and gradually stabilized and climbed in the shock, thus reaping a "good start" in April.
As Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) mentioned, the current stock index is still in the stage of building a phased bottom. The hot spots led by the two cities change frequently, with obvious institutional characteristics, investors are advised to wait patiently for the time point of change . It is expected that the short-term slight shock of the Shanghai index is more likely, and the short-term slight consolidation of the gem is more likely. We suggest that investors pay close attention to the investment opportunities of banks, real estate, engineering construction and some cyclical industries in the short term, and continue to pay attention to the investment opportunities of undervalued blue chips in the middle line.
From a technical point of view, Dongguan Securities said that the three major A-share indexes opened low and went high last Friday, continuing the rebound pattern, which is in line with previous expectations. The market has a good profit-making effect, and the northward capital continues to flow in net, which supports the market capital. It is expected that the market will usher in a stabilization and repair pattern, pay attention to the change of volume and energy and the rotation of sectors , and it is suggested to pay attention to finance, real estate, building materials, steel, electrical equipment TMT and other industries.
As far as the future is concerned, the Guojun strategy team pointed out that spring will finally come. We should be confident that . However, under the existing policy mix and fundamental expectations, before the path of demand and credit easing is clear, the Shanghai Composite Index 31003400 fluctuates. At this stage, it is recommended to make a defensive counterattack rather than a trend counterattack. In terms of investment, we should focus on stocks with low-risk characteristics, pay attention to the intersection of undervalued value and profit improvement, and focus on consumption and cycle sectors.
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) mentioned that "spring" will eventually come. The low point of the market this year has a high probability. In the future, it will be a market of slowly filling the pit, and the driving force is the steady growth policy . Similar to the "summer" bull market is not ready for the time being. To maintain the judgment of this year's market shock pattern, the pit filling market has been slowly launched after the rapid pit digging in the first two and a half months.
The agency further analyzed that the allocation of pit filling market in the first half of focused on the stable growth policy, which is expected to directly drive the growth of new and old infrastructure investment . The main line in the second half of the year will slowly follow the logic of economic recovery. Because the steady growth policy continues to promote, the economic growth rate may stabilize and recover in the second half of the year, especially the fundamentals of consumer industries are expected to improve. There are still two key directions for economic growth, i.e. lower carbon infrastructure and more flexible financial policies in the second quarter.
Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) said that expected the mood of A-Shares to recover after the Qingming holiday . However, considering that the profit growth rate of Q2 enterprises is still in the downward period, and the Fed's interest rate hike and even table contraction in May will still disturb the market, it is difficult to deduce a sustained strong rebound. Maintain the general trend view: the rebound space of the market is temporarily anchored by the annual performance growth of non-financial A shares (we expect 4% ~ 7%). The time point from rebound to reversal or the inflection point of interim report performance in the middle of the year is the key. Real estate stocks may have a three-stage market, which is currently deducting the second stage market; Industry allocation attaches importance to the subdivision of improved supply and demand + the capital expenditure direction of the best cash flow sector.
It is noteworthy that Guosheng Securities pointed out that historically, stock price performance is highly correlated with the performance of the first quarterly report, which is an important feature of the market in April . According to the statistical results since 2010, the performance of the first quarterly report has a very high explanatory power for the performance of the stock market in April, while the correlation between the performance of the annual report of the previous year and the relative performance of individual stocks in April is not significant, that is, it is the first quarterly report rather than the annual report of the previous year that determines the stock price performance in the performance window period in April. Combined with the pre disclosed performance in 2021 and the consistent profit forecast in 2022, the industries with the highest performance in the first quarter are expected to focus on the upstream resources and high boom track sectors.
historically, the so-called "April decision" is based on the completion of important meetings, the intensive disclosure of the performance of listed companies and the timely landing of economic data in peak seasons. However, under the disturbance of the current epidemic, the real economy continues to be depressed and the inspection period for the landing effect of steady growth policies is postponed again, which also leads to the postponement of the decision window again . The middle and later period of the second quarter is an important observation window. Referring to the post epidemic recovery process in the second and third quarters of 2020, the probability of entities after disturbance ushered in a rapid recovery stage. If the current round of epidemic spread can be effectively controlled in early April, the transmission from the end of credit to the end of economy is expected to be realized in the middle and late second quarter.
The agency also mentioned that focuses on three main lines : 1) weak credit, weak entities, further strengthening the demand for steady growth, and urgent efforts need to be made in monetary credit transmission, recommending high-quality banks and state-owned enterprise developers; 2) In April, the quarterly report market was welcomed, and the short-term growth stocks were more flexible. The communication and state-owned enterprise reform in the direction of new infrastructure development + military industry determined by the growth trend were recommended; 3) Oil transportation benefiting from the expansion of regional alternative demand, as well as aquaculture and catering with the concept of dilemma reversal.
From the macro perspective, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) believes that the epidemic accident affected the pace of steady growth, and the urgency of policy overweight increased significantly in the second quarter. It is expected that the steady growth policy will shift from full deployment to centralized development. A number of pessimistic expectations in the market bottomed out ahead of the fundamentals, and the negative impact of the economy on the market is weakening from the second quarter. suggests grasping the trend of mid-term repair in the second and third quarters, Firmly layout "two low" varieties . In terms of configuration, it is suggested to continue to adhere to the main line of steady growth, focus on the layout of low valuation and expected low varieties, and pay more attention to the real estate industry chain in the second quarter.
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) said that the second quarter of was the window period for verifying steady growth . The spread of the epidemic throughout the country makes the control of the epidemic the most important work at present, and some policies for steady growth have actually been delayed. If the epidemic is initially controlled in April, more stimulus policies can be expected. At the same time, if overseas commodity prices fall, it will be more conducive for Chinese enterprises to restore profitability.
In terms of operational strategy, the agency further analyzed that the rebound took performance as the main line and comprehensively considered the areas that policies may stimulate . From the published annual report and the forecast of the first quarterly report, the growth performance of power equipment and electronics is better. The policy may stimulate in aspects including the transformation of old cities. Combined with the decline since 2022 and the matching degree of valuation and profit, we suggest paying attention to electronics, media, military industry, Dianxin and automobile.
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) pointed out that from the rhythm of the previous bottoming of a shares, the "market bottom" is not too far away after the "policy bottom" is proved, and the Shanghai stock index is near Jinlong Machinery & Electronic Co.Ltd(300032) 00 points or a relatively solid bottom . In the future, there will be a high probability of upward shock after the bottom of a shares. We should pay attention to two signals: on the one hand, China's stability maintenance policy continues to be issued, and the economic fundamentals confirm the bottom; On the other hand, the external disturbance factors such as the rhythm of the Fed's interest rate increase and contraction and geographical relations are gradually becoming clear.
In terms of industry allocation, pays attention to three main investment lines : first, the marginal benefit policy is relaxed, such as "bank and real estate"; Second, "agriculture and gold" benefiting from inflation expectations; Third, the theme of policy (support) promotion is related to "new energy (photovoltaic, energy storage, hydrogen energy), semiconductor, counting East and west", etc.
