Key points:
1. For some time to come, the market will be in the bottom grinding stage from the bottom of the policy to the bottom of the market. Under the background of constrained overseas liquidity and increasing downward pressure on the economy again, the steady growth sector is the direction with the least resistance.
2. At present, the bottom of China's economy is not yet reached. The downturn of the real estate market and the impact of the epidemic on consumption and services are the main factors restricting the economy. Steady growth has entered the second stage, there is limited room for infrastructure to continue to rise, real estate will be significantly strengthened, and consumption and services will be repaired after the local epidemic dissipates. However, we need to pay attention to the downside risks of exports and manufacturing.
3. Different from the interest rate hike cycle in 20152018, the current round of interest rate hike cycle of the Federal Reserve is "fast in the front and slow in the back". The peak of tightening will appear in the second quarter. There is still room for the rise of US bond interest rate in the second quarter, and 2.8% is the next key point. It is necessary to be vigilant against the negative impact of the upside down of interest rate spread between China and the United States. From the current time point, the operating space of price instruments has indeed faced multiple constraints, Quantitative tools will become an important starting point for leading structural easing, and the effect of wide credit needs to see a significant recovery in real estate and other carriers.
4. After the end of the policy is confirmed, the follow-up will focus on the statements of the Political Bureau meeting in the first quarter on the economic situation, monetary and fiscal policy, real estate and other fields, and the structural policy will focus on the enterprise rescue under the point epidemic and the level of stabilizing expectations, so as to reduce the unnecessary impact of non economic factors on the market.
5. There are structural opportunities in the market before the continuous recovery of credit and the formal confirmation of the economic bottom, focusing on three allocation clues. In terms of cost performance, the sectors related to steady growth are the best, the post economic cycle is the second, and the game of boom growth is difficult. In April, industrial banks, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, medicine and biology are preferred.
Summary:
1. The second stage of steady growth. For some time to come, the market will be in the bottom grinding stage from the bottom of the policy to the bottom of the market. Under the background of constrained overseas liquidity and increasing downward pressure on the economy again, the steady growth sector is the direction with the least resistance. At present, the bottom of China's economy is not yet reached. The downturn of the real estate market and the impact of the epidemic on consumption and services are the main factors restricting the economy. Steady growth has entered the second stage, there is limited room for infrastructure to continue to rise, real estate will be significantly strengthened, and consumption and services will be repaired after the local epidemic dissipates. However, we need to pay attention to the downside risks of exports and manufacturing. Different from the interest rate hike cycle in 20152018, the current round of fed interest rate hike cycle is "fast in front and slow in back". The peak of tightening will appear in the second quarter. There is still room for the rise of US bond interest rate in the second quarter, and 2.8% is the next key point. We need to be vigilant against the negative impact caused by the upside down of China US interest rate spread. From the current time point, the operating space of price tools has indeed faced multiple constraints, and quantitative tools will become an important starting point for leading structural easing, The effect of wide credit needs to see the obvious recovery of real estate and other carriers. After the end of the policy is confirmed, the follow-up will focus on the statements of the Political Bureau meeting in the first quarter on the economic situation, monetary and fiscal policies and real estate. The structural policy will focus on the enterprise rescue under the point epidemic and the level of stabilizing expectations, so as to reduce the unnecessary impact of non economic factors on the market. There are structural opportunities in the market before the continuous recovery of credit and the formal confirmation of the end of the economy, focusing on three allocation clues. In terms of cost performance, the sectors related to steady growth are the best, the post economic cycle is the second, and the game of boom growth is more difficult. In April, industrial banks, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, medicine and biology are preferred.
2. Main ideas of industry allocation: looking forward to April, we believe that the market has entered the bottom grinding stage after the confirmation of the policy bottom, and there are structural opportunities before the credit recovery and the formal confirmation of the economic bottom. Under the background of obvious contraction of valuation in the first quarter, the stock market deduces the bottom grinding stage from the bottom of policy to the bottom of market. The performance of listed companies faced downward pressure in the second quarter, and the valuation changes were affected by the tightening of the Federal Reserve. The subsequent valuation expansion was due to the recovery of credit and the bottom of economic confirmation. There are three clues for structural opportunities: steady growth, post cycle and business growth segmentation. Specifically, 1) steady growth is the direction with the least resistance under the continuous impact of the epidemic. The sector focuses on real estate and infrastructure with strong expectation of policy marginal relaxation, as well as banks and other large financial sectors benefiting from the stabilization of the real estate chain; 2) Post cyclical varieties that lag behind the change of economic cycle and can reflect inflation, including coal, petroleum and petrochemical, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, etc; 3) The boom growth sector focuses on the high boom segments with strong industrial cycle catalysis, such as photovoltaic, medical services, green electricity, etc. among them, the pharmaceutical and biological sector has lagged behind in the overall performance in the past year, and the valuation is now at the absolute bottom. With the centralized purchase of medicine has become a normalized event, the impact on the performance of the industry has been gradually clarified, multiple negative factors have gradually cleared up, and the oversold rebound has taken shape. In April, industrial banks, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, medicine and biology were preferred.
Risk tips: liquidity tightening is higher than expected, economic stall is down, Sino US friction is intensified, the epidemic situation is worse than expected, and the future performance of relevant target companies is uncertain.
