The scarcity of the first natural gas power generation project is parallel to the underlying logic. Penghua Shenzhen Energy Group Co.Ltd(000027) clean energy REIT
The initial investment infrastructure project is Shenzhen Energy Group Co.Ltd(000027) East power plant (phase I) project, the original equity is Shenzhen Energy Group Co.Ltd(000027) , the final total investment of the project is 3.432 billion yuan, the main business is natural gas power generation, and the main source of income is the income from the provision of power production and related services and the collection of electricity charges.
The installed capacity of non fossil energy exceeded that of coal power for the first time, and the power generation capacity of natural gas in Guangdong Province increased steadily. According to the analysis and prediction report on the national power supply and demand situation from 2021 to 2022, by the end of 2021, the national full caliber coal-fired power installed capacity was 1.11 billion kw, with a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, accounting for 46.7% of the total power generation installed capacity and a year-on-year decrease of 4.89%; The installed capacity of full caliber non fossil energy power generation was 1.12 billion kw, with a year-on-year increase of 13.4%, accounting for 47.0% of the total installed capacity, with a year-on-year increase of 4.91%. It exceeded the installed proportion of coal power for the first time in history. According to the annual report of Guangdong power market from 2018 to 2021, from 2018 to 2021, the power generation of gas power in Guangdong Province was 51.7 billion kwh, 63.1 billion kwh, 74.8 billion kWh and 891 kwh respectively, and the total power generation in Guangdong Province was 430.1 billion kwh, 461.1 billion kwh, 478 billion kWh and 585.3 billion kwh respectively, accounting for 12.01%, 13.69%, 15.65% and 15.22% respectively.
Stable income, long-term agreement to control costs. The total net profit of the company in the first quarter of 2020 was 1.61 billion yuan and that in the first three quarters of 2020 was 1.63 billion yuan, respectively, and the net profit margin was 1.68 billion yuan and 2.52 billion yuan, respectively; In terms of operating costs, the raw materials consumed by the project in 2020 are 91979531668 yuan, accounting for 70.89% of the total operating costs; The raw materials consumed from January to September 2021 were 80227467293 yuan, accounting for 87.49% of the total operating cost. At the same time, the predicted net cash flow distribution rate of the project in the next two years is more than 10%. Since the preparation of the financial statements is based on reasonable assumptions, the actual value may deviate.
The scope of power sales is gradually adjusted, and the installed capacity ranks in the forefront of the region. The total electricity sales of the project will maintain stable growth from 2018 to 2020, and the overall operation is stable; The base electricity sales decreased from 28331653 million kwh in 2018 to 6588427 million kwh in 2020, and the electricity sales structure developed towards market-oriented electricity sales.
Fixed + excess incentive double floating management fee. Compared with the existing 11 REITs, the fixed management fee rate of Penghua Shenzhen Energy Group Co.Ltd(000027) clean energy REIT is at the average level. In terms of floating management fee, Penghua Shenzhen Energy Group Co.Ltd(000027) clean energy REIT and Wells Fargo's first water REIT adopt the index of EBITDA completion rate, The difference is that the floating management fee of Penghua Shenzhen Energy Group Co.Ltd(000027) clean energy REIT consists of a fixed rate of 3.5% and an excess incentive rate of 0-30%, and the minimum standard of the fixed rate is 10 million yuan. It remains to be seen whether the incentive of high floating management rate can bring sustainable stability to the operation.
Risk tips: operation life risk of natural gas unit, performance risk of upstream LNG supplier and renewal risk of natural gas long-term agreement.
