The two plague resulted in the replacement of the world trade center. The first plague occurred in the 6-9 century, and struck the two most important civilizations of East and West. The Moslem between the East and West benefited from the desert climate and the living conditions of the big city. The plague was less obvious than the strong neighbors on both sides. They took advantage of the machine expansion and sealed off the Western silk road leading to the East. Since then, the transit trade jointly led by Islam and Judaism has stepped onto the historical stage. The second plague took place in the fourteenth Century and became a catalyst for social change and economic change. It promoted the regeneration of Europe and laid the foundation for its subsequent global trade. The severe "plague catastrophe" did not interrupt human trade for two reasons: first, there is a clear boundary between the comparative advantages of the East and the west, and it is difficult to migrate industries. Therefore, although businessmen trading special products in the East and the West bear great risks, they can also get rich returns; Secondly, under the recognition at that time, interrupting trade did not seem to be an important option to eliminate the plague.
The world in the eight major plagues in modern times: business and trade are always growing. After the plague in peacetime, the proportion of Global trade in GDP will hardly be affected; In the plague of declining trade, it is also difficult to distinguish whether it is due to the war, the recession of the economy itself or the impact of the epidemic. Taking the plague of Losangeles in 1924 and the parrot fever in 1930 as an example, we see that commercial interests are always important. People always seek the best solution to continue trade in the constraints caused by plagues.
The "comparable" modern epidemic is Spanish influenza: the "lesson" of the era of trade protectionism. According to the scope and number of cases, the Spanish influenza in 1918 is a modern plague that we can learn from. Spanish influenza did have a short-term impact on trade, which was mainly reflected in the suspension of global production and trade due to shutdown and isolation, and the export of raw materials related to the treatment of the virus was restricted. These short-term impacts also began to decline after the epidemic gradually subsided. Some scholars believe that the Spanish flu has promoted post epidemic trade protectionism. However, the Spanish flu is not so much a "cause" as an "excuse". The underlying reason for the formation of trade barriers is that developed countries tried to transfer their own economic contradictions and financial burden to foreign countries at that time.
In the post covid-19 world, the fragmented world still needs to be connected: from the history of the "Black Death", we can see that the comparative advantages of the East and the West and the limited disease cognition make people risk huge risks for cross-border trade. At present, when the division of labor is highly detailed and there are many countries participating in the production of a single product, trade is more necessary; The localization of supply chain is a long-term and arduous task. According to the current understanding of the epidemic situation, "isolation" is indeed an effective method to eliminate the epidemic situation, but like the "Nautilus" in 1930, there are always ways to meet the quarantine requirements without affecting trade. The negative example is that various trade protection policies after the Spanish flu are ineffective or even have negative effects, which may provide historical reminders for policymakers in various countries. At present, due to the supply chain problems caused by covid-19 epidemic, China's inflation in industrial countries (represented by the United States and Europe) with declining trade complexity over the past decade has reached a new high since the 1970s, and needs to rely on trade to reduce inflation. The recent tariff exemption reflects this trend. The confusion in the future is: the differences in epidemic prevention and control policies seem to be causing a certain degree of blocking between the manufacturing powers and the world; Disputes are often accompanied by major epidemics, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine also forms a certain degree of trade isolation between major energy countries and Western society.
Who will be the "Baghdad" of the new era? Opportunities under the "new center": the sanctions and restrictions imposed by western countries on Russian goods created an environment similar to the stagnation of direct trade between the East and the west after the 7th century - Baghdad benefited a lot from transit trade as the center of the Islamic world at that time. The trade between resource countries and consumer countries is blocked, which gives China, which is dominated by intermediate manufacturing, the opportunity to mediate with a neutral attitude. We also have reason to believe that the Chinese market can get out of the dilemma of short-term epidemic prevention and control. Just like mankind for more than 1000 years, Baghdad, which may eventually belong to the world after the epidemic in the 21st century, is emerging. The new center may be reshaping. The transportation industry of the new center under Shanghai New World Co.Ltd(600628) deserves our more attention: human transportation (aviation, airport) and cargo transportation (oil transportation, dry bulk transportation and centralized transportation).
Risk tips: 1) the risk of the epidemic exceeding the expected development. 2) Progress in trade protection policies of various countries. 3) Other factors not considered: such as scientific and technological level, political pattern, etc.
