Recent suggestions focus on industries: computer and banking.
At present, the valuation of the computer industry has been at a relatively low level in history and has shown relative resistance to decline. Market for epidemic disease
The pessimism of the situation has been better released in the early decline. Later, with the decline of the number of new medical records, the mood is expected to improve. Moreover, from the perspective of long-term valuation, we believe that the current is also a good long-term intervention point. In addition, it must be noted that the epidemic will continue to bring about changes in people’s living habits and the further acceleration of the digital transformation of lifestyle, which will bring more challenges and opportunities to companies in the industry. Risk warning: uncertainty of international situation; The upper reaches of enterprises cut spending under inflation; Local debt risk release; The impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations.
This period, the bank (CITIC) index rose 5.12%. Among the segments, the index of state-owned banks rose 4.16%, the index of joint-stock banks rose 4.70% and the index of regional banks rose 6.98%. The insurance index rose 3% and the real estate index rose 10.63%. Over the same period, the CSI 300 index rose 2.43%. Compared with the macro disturbance, we pay more attention to the improvement of the “internal strength” of the industry. It is considered that the extremely low valuation level of the current banking sector fully reflects the pessimistic expectations of the market on the credit risk exposure and macroeconomic downturn of the real estate industry. At the same time, considering the good performance growth and continuously improved asset quality of the bank, it is considered that the current sector has high allocation value and maintains the investment rating of “stronger than the market” of the industry. It is suggested to focus on the head state-owned banks and joint-stock banks with solid asset quality, as well as the head urban commercial banks and rural commercial banks in regional economically developed areas.
Risk tip: the asset quality has deteriorated significantly, resulting in systemic risk.
Lithium battery
The current lithium battery index fell 1.65%, significantly underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index. The short-term Shanghai stock index is expected to be dominated by shocks, combined with
The industry boom and the trend of the sector. The short-term lithium battery sector is generally cautious. It is suggested that after the index stabilizes, we should pay appropriate attention to the high-quality target with undervalued segments and determined performance growth.
Systematic risk warning; The price of raw materials fluctuates greatly; The sales volume of new energy vehicles is less than expected; Industry competition intensifies
Chemical industry
In this period, CITIC basic chemical industry index rose 0.42%, underperforming Shanghai stock index by 1.77 percentage points and Shanghai Shenzhen 300 index by 2.01 percentage points, ranking 20th among 30 CITIC primary industries. Among CITIC’s tertiary sub industries, 18 rose and 15 fell, with polyurethane, nitrogen fertilizer and carbon fiber sectors leading the performance. Suggested attention: coal chemical industry and chemical fertilizer sector.
Risk tip: the price of raw materials fluctuates sharply, the price of products drops sharply, and the strength of environmental protection policies is lower than expected.
Food and beverage
This period, the food and beverage sector rose 2.91%, of which Baijiu, beer, meat products and dairy products increased by 3.28%, 3.31%, 7.38% and 3.22% respectively. With the help of epidemic prevention and control, the food and beverage sector performed better, but more in stages; The meat products sector increased significantly, mainly benefiting from the market expectation that the pork price bottomed out, and the performance of the sector has good sustainability. The middle of 2022 will be the key time when the fundamentals hit the bottom and the market is expected to rise. Due to the deep decline in the food sector in the early stage, many core assets already have valuation advantages. It is suggested to pay attention to the core targets of the deep decline in the early stage, including blue chip assets and growth assets.
Risk warning: rising manufacturing costs; Residents’ consumption is weak.
Medicine
Market review: in this period, the pharmaceutical industry as a whole fell by 0.15%, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose by 2.43% in the same period, which was weaker than the market as a whole. Investment suggestion: it is suggested to pay attention to covid-19 prevention and control API and enterprises related to the industrial chain, as well as the field of traditional Chinese medicine.
Risk tip: the epidemic development exceeded expectations
Securities
The current period’s brokerage index fluctuated upward again at a low level, and the weekly line reversed the negative line of last week. In a short cycle, the securities sector will still maintain the trend of shaking the bottom of the market, and the space for continuous upward repair is limited.
Risk tips: 1 The weakening of the equity and fixed income market environment led to the decline of the overall operating performance of the industry; 2. Market fluctuation risk; 3. The progress and strength of comprehensively deepening the reform of the capital market are less than expected.
Photovoltaic
The photovoltaic industry fell 1.23% in the current period, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index. The turnover of the photovoltaic sector continued to shrink by 13.35 billion yuan, down from the previous week. Individual stocks in the sector fell more or rose less, and the profit-making effect was weak. The short-term peripheral geopolitical conflict showed signs of easing, and the market risk appetite picked up. Due to the systematic decline in this round, the photovoltaic sector is relatively resistant to decline, and the resilience is also weaker than the market. Since the beginning of the year, there have been frequent expansion plans in all links of the photovoltaic industry chain, which not only reflects entrepreneurs’ judgment on the high prosperity of the industry, but also paves the way for the potential mismatch between supply and demand. At the same time, the price of silicon is strong, which may inhibit the installation of photovoltaic in the short term. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading enterprises in the field of thermal field materials, photovoltaic glass, integrated module factory and inverter with reasonable valuation in the medium and long term. Risk warning: the global installed demand is less than expected; Performance growth was less than expected.
Media
China’s epidemic situation began to repeat again, and some cities began to carry out relatively strict personnel mobility control measures, which may have a certain impact on the offline film market and offline advertising in the short term. According to the cat’s eye professional edition, the operating rate of cinemas across the country fell from 91.83% to 45.10%. Last week, there were 1.189 million screenings nationwide, which was the same as the initial stage of the resumption of cinemas in 2020. In March, the national total box office was 910 million yuan, and the Qingming films were basically withdrawn. In April, the China Film Co.Ltd(600977) market may continue to face greater operating pressure, which may further accelerate the clearing rhythm of China’s cinema market, and the market share of leading cinemas and film investment is expected to increase again.
Recently, Shanghai, Jilin and other places have adopted strict home isolation and epidemic prevention policies, which may stimulate the short-term traffic of the game industry again. In the medium and long term, we will continue to pay attention to the progress of the version number of the game industry.
Risk warning: the risk of international political turmoil; The risk of repeated outbreaks and virus mutation; The tightening of regulatory policies exceeded expectations; Intensified market competition; Goodwill impairment risk; The quality of output content is lower than expected; The characteristics of project system lead to unstable performance.
Machinery
In this period, CS machinery sector fell 0.96%, outperforming CSI 300 (+ 2.43%) by 3.39 PCT, ranking 26th in 30 CS primary industries. Continue to focus on the mainstream track of scientific and technological growth. In the short term, the track of mainstream new energy equipment and semiconductor equipment has been fully adjusted, and there are signs of oversold rebound. It is suggested to layout the opportunity of bottom reading rebound of the leader of the growth track. In the medium and long term, we will continue to pay attention to the mainstream growth track represented by new energy photovoltaic wind power equipment, lithium battery equipment and specialized new small giant enterprises.
Risk warning: macroeconomic downturn; The price of raw materials continues to rise sharply; Major changes have taken place in the new energy policy.
Electronic
The current electronic (Shenwan) index fell by 3.1%, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index (2.43%) in the same period, with 31 Shenwan level banks
It is the last in the industry. Risk factors in the current external environment, such as covid-19 epidemic, US science and technology sanctions, Russia Ukraine conflict and the expectation of fed interest rate hike, have tightened risk appetite, which will have a negative impact on science and technology industries in particular.
From a long-term perspective, the demand for 5g + alot, automotive electrification and intelligence, VR / AR, smart home and other application fields will continue to grow. In addition, due to the complex changes in the current international economic and political situation, there is an urgent demand for domestic substitutes in the upstream of chips, electronic devices, raw materials and so on. It is suggested to pay attention to the industrial chain of power semiconductor, automotive electronics and VR.
Risk tips: 1) the progress of domestic production is lower than expected; 2) The cost of upstream raw materials remains high; 3) The development of advanced technology of Chinese manufacturers may not be as expected; 4) Systemic risk.
Household appliances
This week, CITIC’s home appliance industry index rose 3.93%, ranking seventh in CITIC’s first-class industry classification. According to statistics, the retail sales of China’s home appliance market in 2021 was 760.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%. Although there was a slight increase, it still fell by more than 7 percentage points compared with 2019 before the epidemic. In the context of the end of the real estate cycle, the downturn in demand caused by the weakening of consumers’ will may be the main factor restricting the growth of China’s home appliance market. Some household electrical appliances that entered the mature stage earlier are limited by their durable goods attributes. After the household ownership enters the bottleneck, the upgrading of consumers is slow, which hinders their market increment and is difficult to further improve.
Risk warning: repeated epidemic situation; The market demand is less than expected; Industry competition pattern intensifies; Risk of continuous fluctuations in raw material prices, shipping costs and exchange rates.
Agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery
In this period, the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (CITIC) industry increased by 2.25%; The CSI 300 index rose 2.43%, and the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry lost 0.18 percentage points to the benchmark index. From the perspective of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry, the animal husbandry and breeding sector increased the most this week, closing up 3.60%; The animal insurance sector ushered in a correction, down 2.49%. Suggestions: focus on the pet food sector in the high growth track and the seed industry sector with policy expectations.
Risk warning: the risk of sharp fluctuations in livestock and poultry prices and raw material prices; Risk that the progress of relevant policies of seed industry is less than expected; The aggravation and deterioration of African swine fever has led to the risk that the slaughter volume of pigs is less than expected.
