Main points
The manufacturing industry was interrupted by the epidemic in the peak season, and the infrastructure was entrusted
In March, the PMI data of manufacturing industry fell comprehensively, the price index rose again, and the peak season of manufacturing industry was interrupted by the epidemic. Under the triple pressure facing the economy this year, the urgency of stabilizing growth has increased. The sudden epidemic has undoubtedly further increased the pressure on steady growth. Under the target of 5.5% this year, the corresponding steady growth policies may need to be introduced more actively. It is noteworthy that the construction industry in the non manufacturing industry has rebounded against the trend, showing a high momentum, and the impact of the epidemic on infrastructure is limited. With the moderately advanced development of some major infrastructure projects and projects, the issuance of special bonds is accelerated and the funds are accelerated. Infrastructure investment is expected to further accelerate and become an important starting point for steady growth.
In the post epidemic era, a new model is formed
China's current epidemic counterattack will not worsen the economic situation, but prolong the current tight economic operation. After more than two years of epidemic suppression, the economy has actually become more and more flexible in dealing with the impact of the epidemic. Since the outbreak, the idea of waiting for the virus to be defeated in a temporary "moderation" and then returning to the original life will give way to a new pattern of behavior. In the post epidemic era, the new lifestyle and new economic structure will gradually evolve and take shape, and the economy will recover its power under the new model.
Follow up policies are worth looking forward to
The current epidemic has increased the pressure on steady growth, and the subsequent introduction of further steady growth policies is worth looking forward to. There should be room for cross cyclical and counter cyclical economic regulation and means. In terms of fiscal policy, we should make good use of the amount of special debt, stimulate infrastructure, promote the expansion of effective investment, reduce taxes and fees, help enterprises rescue and stabilize market players; Under the guidance of monetary policy, the total amount of loans remains the same and the monetary structure remains stable. The total amount of interest rate and reserve requirement reduction policies can be expected to cooperate with Pratt & Whitney + green structural tools to promote the steady decline of enterprise financing costs.
Risk tips
Inflation continues to rise; Repeated changes in the epidemic situation have once again exceeded expectations; Monetary policy changed more than expected.
