In March, Caixin PMI and Zhongcai PMI fell from the expansion range to the contraction range month on month. Among them, Caixin PMI fell more significantly, from 50.4 to 48.1, and Zhongcai PMI fell from 50.2 to 49.5. The decline of PMI in March reflects the more complex situation of internal and external factors facing China's economy. On the one hand, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is stuck, the price of bulk commodities rises, the cost of manufacturing enterprises rises significantly, and the profit is compressed; On the other hand, China's epidemic has suppressed domestic demand, the new order index has dropped significantly, and the supply side has also been restrained. Overall, in March, China's economy was under the multiple pressures of weak supply and demand, rising costs and shrinking profits. The economy ushered in the cold spring. In this case, the efforts to stabilize growth still need to be further strengthened.
Both supply and demand are weak under the impact of the epidemic. In March, the manufacturing industry was weak in both supply and demand. Whether Caixin PMI or Zhongcai PMI, the new order index, new export order index and production index fell significantly. In terms of production, the weakening of the production index is mainly affected by the epidemic control. Some regions and some enterprises have entered the state of semi shutdown, resulting in the overall weakening of industrial production; In terms of demand, the weakening of the new order index also reflects the impact of China's epidemic on demand, while the weakening of new export orders is affected by two aspects at home and abroad. The intensification of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine overseas has impacted on foreign demand, and the epidemic in Shenzhen and Shanghai in China has reduced the operation efficiency of ports. Under the impact of two aspects, Caixin PMI and Zhongcai PMI's new export orders have both fallen.
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has raised manufacturing costs. In March, the raw material price index and ex factory price index of Caixin PMI and Zhongcai PMI continued to rise compared with February. The main pressure still comes from the sharp rise of national commodity prices, especially the rise of raw material purchase price index, such as petroleum, coal and other fuel processing, black metal smelting and calendering processing The purchase price index and ex factory price index of main raw materials in upstream industries such as nonferrous metal smelting and calendering are more than 70.0%. Impacted by the rise of national commodity prices, PPI is expected to rise further month on month in March, and the year-on-year downward speed also continues to slow down.
In March, Caixin PMI and Zhongcai PMI both went down, reflecting the headwind of the manufacturing industry under the impact of multiple factors. In China, the outbreak of the epidemic in many places has impacted industrial production, and domestic demand has declined; Overseas, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has not yet ushered in a turning point, and the international commodity price center represented by crude oil and nonferrous metals has further increased. Even if the intensity of the subsequent military conflict between Russia and Ukraine decreases, the European and American sanctions against Russia will not be lifted in a short time. On the one hand, it means that the international commodity prices are operating at a high level, and on the other hand, the impact caused by the global economy, especially the European economy, is initially apparent, China's foreign demand fell. At the same time, enterprises are faced with falling demand and rising costs. The pressure on middle and lower reaches enterprises is further increased, and their profitability is impacted, which will further affect their enthusiasm to expand investment. Therefore, under the current circumstances, the economic data in March may fall significantly compared with that from January to February, and the efforts to stabilize growth need to be further strengthened.
