Strategic view
On Thursday, the Shanghai stock index was mainly sorted out throughout the day, the small and long holiday was coming, the market sentiment was more cautious, and the gem index was weak. As of the close, the Shanghai stock index fell 0.44%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.19%, the gem index fell 1.38%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fell 0.74%, the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 fell 0.57%, and the China Stock Exchange 500 fell 0.83%. The number of gainers in the two cities was 2086, higher than the average value of 2034 last week and lower than 3845 in the previous trading day. The daily limit was 60, lower than the average value of 95 last week and 90 the previous trading day. The number of decliners in the two cities was 2520, lower than the average value of 2549 last week and higher than 793 in the previous trading day. The number of drop limits was 22, higher than the average value of 15 last week and 9 on the previous trading day. Northbound funds had a net inflow of 1.053 billion yuan, with an average net outflow of 2.556 billion yuan last week and a net inflow of 12.727 billion yuan the previous trading day. The turnover of the two cities was 1009413 billion yuan, with an average value of 952649 billion yuan last week and 958597 billion yuan the previous trading day. Due to the lack of rebound kinetic energy, we define it as oversold rebound as a whole. Previously, we analyzed and believed that: “from the perspective of energy, the rebound belongs to the local market, and there is no diffusion, which means that the risk appetite on the floor is not prominent. Therefore, it is suggested that investors should focus on the energy situation of the next two transactions this week, and the index will stop below 3300 again.” From the market operation on Thursday, the pre holiday probability of the index is mainly volatile.
Stock index futures trading strategy
Viewpoint: long and short funds leave the market, and the index remains volatile
(1) as of March 31, the positions of if, IH and IC contracts were 206200, 92300 and 312600 respectively, and the day on month changes were – 7.11%, – 4.41% and – 2.8%;
(2) on March 31, the difference between the contract and spot price of if, IH and IC in the current month was -3.8 points, 1.17 points and -6.36 points, which was -3.9 points, – 2.34 points and -3.49 points higher than that of the previous trading day. Operation suggestion: if2204 mainly throws high and absorbs low, with support level of 4200 points and resistance level of 4260 points
Option trading strategy
Viewpoint: the PCR value continues to rise, and the index fluctuates weakly
(1) on March 31, the PCR (positions) of 50ETF option, Huatai 300etf option, harvest 300etf option and 300 stock index option were 0.84, 0.96, 1.03 and 0.79 respectively, of which the PCR values of 50ETF and 300etf options decreased slightly;
(2) on March 31, the implied volatility of 300etf option and 50ETF option were 20.2% and 18.6% respectively, and the implied volatility of 300etf option and 50ETF option rebounded slightly.
Operation suggestion: radical strategy: none at present; Steady strategy: buy a 300etf put April 4200 option and sell 300etf put April 4100 option at the same time. The maximum return of a single option portfolio is 639 yuan and the maximum loss is 361 yuan; Hedging
Hedging strategy: None
Risk tips
1. Rapid cooling of market transactions; 2 short term panic continued to spread risk factors.
