[strategic view]
Although A-Shares have undergone substantial adjustment, the market bottom is still under exploration. At present, the PE valuation of wandequan a (except finance and petrochemical) is 26.36 times, and the PE valuation of the absolute bottom area of 2008q3, 2012q1 and 2018q4 markets is less than 20 times.
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has eased in the short term, the actual demands of both sides have not been met, the long-term military confrontation may still exist, and the overseas geopolitical impact will be long-term.
The global energy crisis will continue. OPEC member states refuse to increase production, which is difficult to make up for the gap between global crude oil supply and demand, and has a far-reaching impact on overseas and Chinese inflation.
Under the expectation of high inflation, the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates more than seven times in the whole year. Under the expectation of upside down interest rate spread between China and the United States, the risk of capital outflow increases, and it is difficult for China’s risk-free yield to loosen again.
[April strategy combination]
Tencent Holdings (0700. HK): Internet regulation is normalized, all businesses are adjusted according to regulatory requirements, and the long-term healthy growth trend remains unchanged; China’s game and advertising businesses benefit from the liberalization of edition numbers and stable macroeconomic growth in the future. The growth rate is expected to pick up in the second half of 2022; The commercialization of overseas games and video numbers and the continuous development of financial technology have brought new increment. Affected by the collective correction of zhonggai shares, the company’s valuation is at a historical low, and the medium and long-term allocation value is prominent.
Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) Co.Ltd(600196) ( Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) Co.Ltd(600196) . SH): the company has a complete layout of the pharmaceutical industry chain, and the “4in” (innovation, internationalization, integration and intelligence) strategy has been steadily promoted. The company has made significant innovation and transformation, and the innovative drug products have contributed to the revenue for a long time. The international layout has been comprehensively accelerated, and the performance has increased steadily.
Byd Company Limited(002594) ( Byd Company Limited(002594) . SZ): the strong product cycle of pure electricity and plug-in hybrid helps the continuous high growth of 22q1 sales. At present, the cumulative undelivered orders are more than 400000, with an increasing trend month by month. It is conservatively estimated that the sales volume of 1.5 million vehicles in 22 years. If the supply chain improves, it will impact the sales target of 2 million vehicles.
Shengmei Shanghai (688082. SH): the company is a platform semiconductor equipment manufacturer. R & D helps to continuously improve the product matrix. The products have gradually entered the top semiconductor customers, benefiting from the expansion of semiconductor production capacity and enjoying the development dividend of semiconductor equipment industry.
Beijing Highlander Digital Technology Co.Ltd(300065) ( Beijing Highlander Digital Technology Co.Ltd(300065) . SZ): after China signed cooperation agreements with Hainan provincial government, China Telecom Corporation Limited(601728) , Shangtang technology and other customers, the company’s subsea data center business recently received an atlas order from a Singapore customer, marking that the company’s relevant technologies have been recognized overseas, which is expected to further open up market space and accelerate the large-scale landing application process of the company’s subsea data cabin.
[risk tips]
Market liquidity risk
Risk of earnings falling short of expectations
