Research conclusion
The average rise and fall of our top ten targets in March of 22 years was - 9.38%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.5%.
Looking forward to the second quarter, we believe that:
At the macro level, there is still room for monetary policy under the pressure of "quasi stagflation". On the one hand, under the fermentation of China's epidemic in March, economic pressure is increasing; On the other hand, the Russian Ukrainian war situation has brought imported inflation pressure, which continues to increase the cost pressure in the middle and lower reaches. Mapping to the A-share level will put pressure on the performance fundamentals of listed companies. Therefore, we believe that there is still room for broad currency to develop in the second quarter, whether from the macro level or micro level.
A-share earnings fundamentals Outlook: A-share roe may continue to decline in the second quarter. According to our roe and TTM prediction of A-Shares (non-financial, two oil, the same below), the downward trend of Q1 will continue in Q2 this year. We predict that the roe and TTM of 2022q1-2022q3a shares (non-financial and two oil companies) are 9.32%, 8.90% and 8.85% respectively.
A-share valuation and capital Outlook: coexistence of repression and support factors. On the one hand, in the second quarter, as a whole, the A-share market is facing a macro environment of partial stagflation, which will inhibit the rise of valuation level, especially for growth stocks; On the other hand, the broad currency is expected to continue to land. On the whole, there will be no significant marginal contraction in the liquidity environment of A-Shares in Q2, which will form a certain support for valuation and stock price.
The main theme of this year's interest rate increase and the second round of the policy of the Federal Reserve of Ukraine is that it is difficult to maintain the high and low of the whole year's main theme of this year's investment and the second round of inflation. We believe that the main theme of this year's interest rate increase and the second round of the policy of the Federal Reserve of Ukraine will be difficult to maintain the high and low of the whole year's investment, or it will be difficult to improve the basic theme of 2022; At the same time, in the macro environment of "quasi stagflation" in China in the second quarter, we should pay attention to the sectors with high valuation and performance cost performance. Specifically: first, "steady growth" and "wide credit" are still the key policy support directions, while infrastructure and real estate are the two main focuses of steady growth and wide credit. The latter will play an increasingly important role. There are still allocation opportunities in the second quarter of this year, focusing on the large financial and real estate infrastructure industry chain with low Pb. 2、 Focus on sectors benefiting from economic stagflation and geopolitical crisis, focusing on agriculture and gold. 3、 Track stocks may usher in a certain investment window period. Starting from April, A-Shares will enter an intensive quarterly disclosure period; Since the substantial adjustment of the market in March, many companies have also disclosed their operating data from January to February in advance; With the phased implementation of the interest rate increase at the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in mid March and the approaching disclosure period of the first quarterly report, track stocks may usher in a certain investment window period. Focus on semiconductor, photovoltaic wind power, energy storage, automotive intelligence and other tracks that benefit from the booming downstream demand and large long-term space. 4、 For the consumer sector, the opportunity is better in the second half of 2022. On the one hand, in the first half of the year, China's economic pressure is still large, and the epidemic and imported inflation will significantly suppress the middle and lower reaches; On the other hand, from the month on month prediction, the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds is more likely to rise in the second half of this year, which also indicates that the recovery of the overall economic heat needs to wait for the second half of this year.
In April of the 22-year-22, the target of attention in April of the 22-year-22, the focus of attention in April of the 22-year-22, the target of attention in April of the 22-year-22: the following is: China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) 717 ( Zhejiang Weiming Environment Protection Co.Ltd(603568) , buy), satellite Chemistry ( Zhejiang Satellite Petrochemical Co.Ltd(002648) , buy), Nantong Jianghai Capacitor Co.Ltd(002484) ( Nantong Jianghai Capacitor Co.Ltd(002484) , buy), Goertek Inc(002241) ( Goertek Inc(002241) , buy)
Risk tips
1. The macroeconomic downturn exceeded expectations;
2. The global epidemic broke out again more than expected;
III. The promotion of the "steady growth" policy was not as expected
