Macro categories:
Under the repeated impact of China’s epidemic, the three major indexes of official manufacturing, non manufacturing and comprehensive PMI fell in March. In the sub item of manufacturing PMI, new orders and production indexes were significantly adjusted. At present, the severe epidemic situation in Shanghai will also drag down the follow-up export of China. In the short term, the “weak reality” of China’s economy is still difficult to reverse. Under the background of increasing downward pressure on the economy, China’s steady growth policy is expected to rise. This Friday will also usher in the U.S. non farm employment data, but the current trend of inflation data is the main leading factor in the Fed’s tightening expectations.
We also noted that on March 28, the US Senate passed the US competition act, which aims to enhance the competitiveness of the United States in the fields of economy, national security and diplomacy. On the same day, the US International Trade Commission (ITC) voted to launch 337 investigations on specific power semiconductors and mobile devices and computers containing such power semiconductors (investigating unfair trade practices in the process of exporting to the United States and taking sanctions), involving China’s TCL, Lenovo, China Guangdong oneplus and other technology enterprises. The US side also said it would investigate Chinese Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) component manufacturers. It can be seen that in the general direction of the improvement of China US relations, the US side has made constant small moves, and China US relations, especially in specific industries, are still subject to twists and turns.
In terms of commodities, although some large and medium-sized cities have further relaxed the real estate policy, there are still some deviations from the current monthly and high-frequency economic data, and the real estate and infrastructure with high correlation with commodities have not yet made significant efforts. From March to now, the performance of real estate financing is still weak, the issuance of credit bonds and ABS of real estate enterprises is significantly depressed year-on-year, and the issuance of new special bonds for infrastructure in the middle of last year is not satisfactory. At the micro level, according to our latest research, affected by the epidemic Affected by snowfall, weak real estate and slow commencement of engineering projects, the downstream construction decreased year-on-year for two consecutive weeks and began to decline slightly month on month; In addition, the government is still increasing the policy of ensuring the supply and price stability of commodities. Under the game of strong expectation and weak reality, we still need to observe the signal of stabilizing and further improving domestic demand, and domestic demand industrial products remain neutral; Crude oil chain commodities need to be vigilant against the easing of the situation between Ukraine and Russia and the adjustment risks brought about by the conclusion of the US Iran nuclear negotiations. In addition, on March 31, the White House announced the release of the largest oil reserve in history and will release 1 million barrels of oil strategic reserves every day in the next six months. We need to pay attention to the implementation of the follow-up release plan; Affected by the situation in Ukraine and Russia, the global price of chemical fertilizer continues to rise, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) based on the supply bottleneck and cost transmission, the bullish logic is still relatively smooth; Moreover, with the support of dry weather, global inflation transmission and other factors, soft commodities such as cotton and sugar also deserve attention; At the precious metals level, the Fed raised interest rates for the first time, superimposed high inflation in the United States, and maintained the view of bargain hunting and long.
Strategy (strength ranking): Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) (cotton, sugar, soybean, soybean meal, etc.), bargain hunting and long of precious metals; Industrial products for external demand (crude oil and its cost related chain commodities, new energy non-ferrous metals), and industrial products for domestic demand (black building materials, traditional non-ferrous aluminum, chemical industry and coal);
Stock index futures: cautious.
Risk point: geopolitical risk; Global epidemic risk; The deterioration of Sino US relations; The situation in the Taiwan Strait; The situation in Ukraine and Russia.
