Executive summary
At the beginning of 2022, China’s economy recovered better than the market expected. Under the policy tone of steady growth this year, fiscal and monetary policies are gradually strengthened, and GDP is expected to grow by 5.0% year-on-year in the first quarter. In March, the epidemic broke out in a scattered way, the epidemic prevention situation was relatively severe, and geopolitical risks caused fluctuations in commodity prices and increased uncertainty in overseas demand, which disturbed China’s economic growth in the first quarter. However, on the whole, under the policy tone of steady growth, with the gradual strength of fiscal and monetary policies, the countercyclical and cross cyclical regulation remained stable, and the economic growth in the first quarter is expected to remain stable.
Supply side
Industrial added value: China’s steady growth policy continues to exert force, contributing to the stable recovery of economic operation and the stable growth of industrial output. However, short-term factors such as repeated epidemics in many parts of the country affect the output growth. It is expected that the growth rate of industrial added value in March will drop slightly, with a year-on-year growth rate of 4.5%, down 8.3 percentage points from the previous period.
Demand side
Consumption: the policies of the two sessions released positive signals, promoted the deep integration of Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) consumption, promoted the recovery of life service consumption, developed new consumption formats and new models, and supported the consumption of new energy vehicles. However, the improvement of the epidemic in the same period last year led to a high base effect, and the multi-point spread of the epidemic seriously affected the consumption of catering, tourism and other services. It is estimated that the total retail sales of social consumer goods may decline year-on-year in March, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 3.3%, down 10 percentage points from the previous period.
