In terms of the external environment, in terms of the epidemic situation, the number of new cases per day in the world remained volatile, and the data of more than 1.5 million / day showed that the epidemic problem was still obvious. In terms of economy, although the European and American economies still maintain a strong momentum of expansion, the trend is differentiated. In March, the PMI index of American makit manufacturing industry rebounded to 58.5% higher than expected, while the PMI index of manufacturing industry in the euro area fell to 57%; At the same time, inflationary pressure is still strengthening. In February, the core PCE price index of the United States rose to 5.5%. The inhibition of high inflation on consumer confidence is further highlighted. In March, the current situation and expected index of consumers at the University of Michigan fell more than expected. In terms of policy, Lagarde said in a speech on the 31st that the geopolitical conflict had a significant impact on the European economy and pushed up inflation, but there was no evidence of stagflation, and believed that the interest rate adjustment should be gradual.
In terms of China's environment, the impact of the spread of the epidemic on the economy continues to appear. Not only the PMI index generally weakened in mid March, but also the strengthened willingness of management to care also confirms the difficulties of the current economic situation. This week, the national standing committee pointed out that "the current international situation is becoming more complex and severe" and "the downward pressure on the economy is further increasing". It is necessary to "put steady growth in a more prominent position". This meeting pointed out that it is necessary to "make good use of government bonds to expand effective investment", so as to "drive consumption, expand domestic demand and promote steady growth of employment". Indeed, the recent spread of the epidemic has significantly increased the difficulties in achieving the 5.5% growth target, and it is difficult to be optimistic about the economic and credit data in March. However, in view of the statement of "firm confidence and firm commitment to the goal" of the national standing committee, we should not be pessimistic about the strengthening of measures to stabilize growth and the realization of credit relief.
In terms of high-frequency data, in the downstream, real estate transactions rebounded, and the Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) wholesale price 200 index rose steadily, with vegetables and fruits rising significantly. In the middle reaches, steel prices rose slightly and cement prices fluctuated slightly. Upstream, the price shock of thermal coal weakened, the price of coking coal reached a new high, the price of non-ferrous metals was generally strong, the price of precious metals remained volatile, and the price of crude oil fell sharply.
Risk tip: the development of the international epidemic exceeded expectations
