Looking back on Thursday's A-share market, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened low across the board, and the stock index fluctuated and fell rapidly at the beginning of trading. Although the Shanghai index once rose and turned red in the morning, it was dragged down by the battered gem index and Shenzhen composite index. In the afternoon, the three major stock indexes fell consistently, and then maintained a low weak shock, showing a low opening and low going trend as a whole.
As Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) mentioned, the index is subject to the shock of the 20 day moving average, and the future market is likely to fluctuate in a wide range similar to the second half of 2018. As long as the large downward trend of the market has not been reversed, should not catch up in the rebound. It is more reliable to capture participation opportunities at the panic point of market adjustment, and the real estate and infrastructure under the expectation of steady growth may be more easily concerned by funds .
From a technical perspective, Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) pointed out that on Thursday, the A-share market soared, encountered obstacles and fell slightly, and the market did not continue the rise of the previous day. Due to the decline of all growth industries such as new energy, semiconductor and aerospace military industry, the stock index fell, the related industries of the real estate chain continued to be strong, and the industries such as real estate, cement and building materials, banking and coal rose in turn, The stock index basically fluctuated around the 3265 point range throughout the day. The game characteristics of stock in the two cities remain the same, and the market continues to show structural market characteristics .
In terms of the future market, the agency further analyzed that the current stock index is still in the stage of building a phased bottom, and whether can continue to rise in the future still needs to be observed. It is suggested to pay close attention to the changes of policy, capital and external factors . It is expected that the short-term slight consolidation of the Shanghai index is more likely, and the short-term slight shock of the gem is more likely. Investors are advised to pay careful attention to the investment opportunities in banking, real estate, computer and coal industries in the short term, and continue to pay attention to the investment opportunities of undervalued blue chips in the middle line.
Bohai Securities said, currently, the overall downward space of the market is not large, and the market is still characterized by shock due to uncertain factors. Once the uncertain factors are alleviated or the micro main body is improved, the upward space of the market is large . In terms of style, since there is no polarization of valuation in the current market, we suggest weakening the style, focusing on the direction of performance growth expectations, and sector opportunities may be more dominant.
In terms of industry allocation, based on the judgment that the market will be in the bottoming process for some time in the future, the agency further analyzed that after the overall decline of all sectors in the market, the sectors with relative certainty will receive capital intervention. Therefore, we can pay attention to the pharmaceutical segments related to covid-19 prevention and control under the medium and long-term end logic of the epidemic, as well as the tourism and shipping sectors under the same logic and the market is gradually desensitized.
In the macro aspect, Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Securities pointed out that is expected to enter the strategic stalemate after the "policy bottom" of A-Shares , and the additional allocation remains to be "market bottom"; The bond interest rate remained fluctuated in the range, and the "every 3 allocation" was still valid; In terms of commodities, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has led to the upward movement of the commodity center, which is expected to remain high and volatile; The short-term increase of gold is overdrawn, and the medium-term allocation value is still significant; In terms of exchange rate, export momentum fell, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates and strengthened the strength of RMB devaluation.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) mentioned that the following potential unexpected and risk points still need to be paid attention to in the second quarter more likely than expected comes from China's policy relaxation : 1) "steady growth" is still a "hard requirement", and there is room and impetus for subsequent monetary and credit easing. 2) The risks of real estate enterprises are expected to "dismantle mines" in succession, and more favorable liquidity and policy support are also needed. 3) The decision-making level has a clear determination to maintain the stability of the capital market.
risk points and uncertainties are more from overseas : 1) the Fed's expectation of raising interest rates and shrinking tables will still curb risk appetite. 2) While liquidity is tightening, US stock profits are also facing downward revision. If U.S. stocks fluctuate sharply again, it may be a drag on a shares. 3) The regulatory impact of zhonggai shares is not clear, or there may be further disturbance. 4) Peripheral conflicts continue. Recently, global commodity prices have rebounded again, and it is difficult for global stagflation concerns to subside quickly. Therefore, the risk points in the second quarter mainly came from the outside. If the overseas risks and shocks continue to deduce under extreme circumstances, the rest of A-Shares in the current bottom area may take longer.
Wanlian Securities believes that looking forward to April, the impact of overseas fluctuations on the A-share market is expected to weaken . It is expected that the macro liquidity will remain stable, the liquidity of the A-share market will be worry free, and the pressure of foreign capital outflow will be reduced. With the warming of market expectations, risk appetite is expected to improve, and pay attention to the sectors with upward prosperity.
The institution further put forward suggestions: 1) some companies have disclosed the performance from January to February, the performance of "steady growth" related sectors is good, and the main line allocation idea continues; 2) With the recovery of market sentiment, the prosperity of the growth sector rebounded, focusing on the rebound opportunities in semiconductor, artificial intelligence, new materials, cloud computing and other fields.
It is worth mentioning that Huachuang Securities said that after 2008, a-share market roughly appeared four "policy bottom market bottom" combinations : September 2008 November 2008, June 2012 December 2012, July 2015 August 2015 and October 2018 January 2019. The confirmation of "policy bottom" is usually accompanied by the continuous introduction of policy combination, including monetary policy, fiscal policy and capital market related policies. In terms of policy implementation, monetary easing is often the first, and the continuous development of fiscal policy and capital market policy is the focus of building a "policy bottom". The improvement of market expectations for economic fundamentals and the recovery of confidence in the stock market are the main driving forces for the market to get out of the bottom.
The agency concluded that from the rhythm of previous bottoming of a shares, the "market bottom" is not too far after the "policy bottom" is proved, and the Shanghai composite index is near Jinlong Machinery & Electronic Co.Ltd(300032) 00 points or a relatively solid bottom . In the future, there will be a high probability of upward shock after the bottom of a shares. We should pay attention to two signals: on the one hand, China's stability maintenance policy continues to be issued, and the economic fundamentals confirm the bottom; On the other hand, the external disturbance factors such as the rhythm of the Fed's interest rate increase and contraction and geographical relations are gradually becoming clear.
Specifically, pays attention to three main investment lines : first, the marginal benefit policy is relaxed, such as "bank and real estate"; Second, "agriculture and gold" benefiting from inflation expectations; Third, the theme of policy (support) promotion is related to "new energy (photovoltaic, energy storage, hydrogen energy), semiconductor, counting East and west", etc.
In terms of operational strategy, Guosheng Securities believes that the current market is still driven by trading policy and short-term game, such as the dilemma reversal and relaxation expectation of the real estate market, the acceleration expectation of water conservancy construction, electronic ID card, etc.
however, as the annual report and the first quarterly report window period enter the peak, the market may enter the fundamental transmission process of confirmation and falsification .
future concerns . According to the published annual report data, China's clinical cro leader Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting Co.Ltd(300347) , achieved an operating revenue of 5.214 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 63.32%. CXO track is relatively prosperous. Based on the summary of the operation of enterprises in the semiconductor industry from January to February 2022, the overall operation of the industry in the first two months was good, and the revenue of most enterprises increased by more than 50% year-on-year. Due to the impact of "Apple cutting orders", semiconductors have fallen sharply recently, and there may be poor expectations in the future. At the same time, the high transfer behind the statement may also become the object of speculation in the future.
YueKai Securities said that expects that the A-share shock repair market is expected to continue , hedged by foreign factors in April. The change of profit expectation will lead to the differentiation of the market. It is suggested that investors should pay more attention to individual stocks than index, focus on the layout of performance certainty and policy power end, focus on two main lines .
first, the performance window is approaching. Pay attention to the pre hi section of the first quarterly report . April will usher in a performance intensive disclosure period, and the market will return to the verification period of performance. From the perspective of industry prosperity, the performance certainty of basic chemical industry, electronics, medical biology, national defense and military industry is relatively stronger. It is suggested that investors should pay attention to the performance of the first quarter report in advance in combination with the valuation matching degree.
second, grasp the main line of policy development . As the main policy line, steady growth will still be the main market in the long run. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to new and old infrastructure and investment opportunities in the consumer industry to expand domestic demand. In addition, the recent intensive release of policies in energy, medicine and other industries is expected to usher in rapid development opportunities in relevant sectors. It is suggested to pay attention to high-quality target investment opportunities in policy beneficiary sectors.
