Soft landing is the Fed's best expectation for the future US economy, but it is not realistic. The 1965 and 1984 soft landing cases joined by Powell avoided the economic recession under the background of wide finance. Compared with the current comparable case, there is still only the 19941995 interest rate increase cycle of monetary and fiscal tightening. Compared with the downturn in the 1990s, it is difficult for US residents to erode their disposable income; The upward slope of intellectual property investment growth slowed down, and the probability rate of capital expenditure entered a downward cycle. Overall, there is little hope of a soft landing for the US economy.
Risk tip: US inflation exceeded expectations, the Fed's monetary policy tightening exceeded expectations, and the US fiscal tightening exceeded expectations
