Macro observation 2022 issue 21 (total issue 418): the trend and impact of RMB exchange rate under the background of China US policy differentiation

Since 2022, the international situation has deteriorated sharply. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the policy differentiation between China and the United States have made the trend of RMB exchange rate much concerned by the market. Historically, the spillover effect of the Fed’s monetary policy has a great impact on the trend of the RMB exchange rate. Generally speaking, the rise of the US dollar index is accompanied by the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate, but there is a trend of the rise of the US dollar index and the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate. In view of the differentiation of monetary policies between China and the United States, this paper reviews the characteristics of the RMB exchange rate trend and analyzes the current situation, discusses the reasons for the “deviation from the trend”, judges the future trend of the RMB exchange rate, finally analyzes the impact of the RMB exchange rate trend on the financial market, banking sector and enterprise sector, and puts forward relevant suggestions.