On March 22, 2022, the first financial China high frequency economic activity index (yhei) was 0.95, down 0.25 from a week ago and the lowest in nearly six weeks. This reflects the impact of upgraded epidemic prevention measures on economic activities in some areas. All positive indicators have decreased to varying degrees. Among them, the "30 city traffic congestion index" and "8 city subway flow index" have decreased by 0.06 and 0.18 respectively in the week ended March 22, and have decreased by 0.11 and 0.42 in the last two weeks.
Steel prices picked up this week. The price of steel billets in Tangshan rose by 1.72% in the week ending March 22, 0.64% in the past month and 2.16% over the same period last year. Cement prices fell. The price index fell by 0.19% in the week ending March 22, increased by 2.45% in the past month and increased by 17.62% compared with the same period last year. Coal prices continued their downward trend. The price of thermal coal decreased by 0.27% in the past month and increased by 26.80% over the same period last year.
As of the week of March 22, the central bank's net investment through the open market was 120 billion yuan. The inter-bank overnight interest rate fell 11 basis points in the week ended March 22, 8 basis points in the past month and 9 basis points lower than the same period last year. The seven day repo rate fell by 2 basis points in the past week and 22 basis points in the past month, up 3 basis points from the same period last year.
The National Bureau of statistics released the housing price index of 70 large and medium-sized cities in February. In February, the year-on-year growth rate of new and second-hand housing prices was still declining, which has lasted for nearly three quarters. In February, the price of new houses increased by 1.2% year-on-year, and the price of second-hand houses decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, which decreased year-on-year for the first time since September 2015. From the perspective of month on month growth rate, new house prices showed signs of stabilizing in February, which was basically at the same level as that in January (down 0.1% month on month); Second hand housing prices are still falling, and the month on month growth rate has remained below - 0.3% for five consecutive months. The real estate market has begun to pick up in the first tier cities. From 2022, the growth rate of new houses and second-hand houses in first tier cities has returned to the positive growth range, which is contrary to the trend of housing prices in second and third tier cities in February.
High frequency data show that real estate transactions have obviously warmed up after the Spring Festival, but the recovery of second-hand housing demand for new houses has been differentiated. In March (data as of March 22), the average daily transaction area of second-hand houses in the first, second and third tier cities we tracked were 51000 square meters, 111000 square meters and 11000 square meters respectively, which was significantly higher than that in February. Among them, the gap between the first and second tier cities and the level in December last year was only about 5 percentage points; On the other hand, the recovery of new housing transactions in the first, second and third tier cities is relatively lagging, and the average daily transaction volume in the first and second tier cities is only about two-thirds of that in December last year.
