In March, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, expected to be 49.8%, and the previous value was 50.2%; Non manufacturing PMI was 48.4%, expected to be 50.3%, and the previous value was 51.6%. Our analysis is as follows:
Under the influence of the epidemic, the supply and demand of the manufacturing industry weakened simultaneously. In March, the manufacturing PMI fell by 0.7 percentage points compared with that in February. The sharp decline of the manufacturing PMI is mainly related to the more serious local epidemic in many places in China since March, and the manufacturing production and market demand have been affected. From the gap between PMI new orders and production index, the difference between the two was - 0.7% in March, with both supply and demand weak and demand more sluggish.
The overall gas level of zhongguanjing fell, and the expectation of infrastructure development is gradually being fulfilled. The number of manufacturing industries in the expansion range in March was 2, with the top value of 7. Non metallic mineral products (+ 10.4%) and electrical machinery and equipment (+ 7.2%) are the industries whose prosperity has improved significantly compared with the previous value. The number of non manufacturing industries in the expansion range in March was 9, with the top value of 12. Under the influence of the epidemic, the PMI of off-line contact economy such as transportation, accommodation and catering fell at the forefront month on month.
The prices of main raw materials and finished products both rose, and attention was paid to the constraints of the Shanghai epidemic on the supply chain. In March, the purchase price and ex factory price index of main raw materials of PMI increased by 6.1 and 2.6 percentage points to 66.1% and 56.7% respectively. We believe that it is mainly related to the sharp rise in the import price of bulk commodities and other raw materials caused by the conflict with Russia and Ukraine, driving the rise of production costs and product sales prices. In addition, Shanghai, which has a serious epidemic, will take global static management measures in the near future. From the perspective of Shanghai vehicle freight flow index in March, the average value of the index in March was 101.1, 8.3 percentage points lower than that of the whole country, and it is still weakening. For example, the epidemic situation in Shanghai has not been effectively controlled in a short time, or exacerbated the pressure on the supply chain and the level of inflation.
The landscape of service industry and construction industry is divided, and the prosperity of small enterprises has improved. In terms of non manufacturing industry, the PMI of construction industry and service industry in March were 58.1% and 46.7% respectively, with the previous values of 57.6% and 50.5%. The boom of construction industry continued, while the outlook of service industry fell below the boom and bust line, returning to the contraction range for the first time since August 2021. From the perspective of market expectation, the business activity expectation index of the construction industry has been in the boom high range for three consecutive months, indicating that construction enterprises have better expectations for the development of the industry. In March, the PMI of large, medium and small enterprises were 51.3%, 48.5% and 46.6% respectively, with the previous values of 51.8%, 51.4% and 45.1%. The prosperity of small enterprises rebounded from last month.
The current epidemic situation may aggravate the uncertainty of steady growth; However, after the impact of the epidemic subsides gradually, the steady growth policy will continue to work. At present, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has eased, and the Fed's interest rate hike has entered a blank window. The marginal impact of the external situation on the production and operation activities of enterprises has weakened. The interpretation of China's epidemic situation is the core variable that determines the economic trend in the short term. We are reporting on the impact of the epidemic on the economy in the first quarter It is mentioned that the current round of epidemic is expected to drag down the GDP growth rate in the first quarter by about 0.94 percentage points. We previously expected the GDP growth rate in the first quarter to be 5.6%, down to 4.7% on this basis. This growth level is lower than the annual growth target of about 5.5% set by the two sessions. It is expected that after the impact of the epidemic gradually eased in April, more stable growth policies are expected to be implemented, and the economy may show a situation of low before high throughout the year.
Risk tip: the spread of the epidemic in China exceeded expectations; The strength and effect of the steady growth policy were not as good as expected
