The US dollar index rebounded, the interest rate spread between China and the United States continued to narrow, Ted interest rate spread began to narrow, and China’s overall capital balance was loose. The US dollar index rebounded last week (2022032120220325). As of March 22, 2022, the net long position rebounded. The interest rate gap between China and the United States continued to narrow, the nominal / real interest rates of US bonds continued to rise sharply, and inflation expectations rebounded. For overseas, Ted interest rate spread began to narrow and offshore dollar liquidity improved; For China, the overall balance of inter-bank funds is loose, the liquidity stratification is intensified, and the term spread (10y-1y) continues to narrow. In terms of trading heat, the trading heat and volatility of the construction sector are still at a relatively high level in history; In terms of research, the research heat of computer, electronics, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, textile and clothing, food and beverage, Dianxin, medicine, banking and other sectors ranked first, while the research heat of food and beverage, steel, communication and other sectors increased rapidly month on month.
The northward trading volume flowed out sharply, and the allocation volume gradually returned, but the margin gradually slowed down. Last week (2022032120220325), the northbound allocation market net bought A-Shares of 15.090 billion yuan, and the northbound trading market net sold A-Shares of 27.143 billion yuan. On a daily basis, the northbound trading continued to have a net outflow; Northward allocation sector continued to buy net as a whole, but gradually slowed down on the edge. In the industry, the consensus between northbound trading and configuration is to net buy nonferrous metals and sell computer, military, automobile and other industries at the same time. In terms of style, the northward configuration / trading sector net sells the medium price value sector at the same time, while there are obvious differences in other types of style sectors: northward configuration sectors choose to buy and trading sectors choose to sell. For the top three heavyweight stocks in the allocation board, the northward allocation board net bought Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) , Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) 391 million yuan and 381 million yuan respectively, and sold Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) 308 million yuan. In terms of market value, last week, the allocation disk mainly excavated the subject matter with a market value of less than 50 billion in the household appliance sector.
The activity of the two financial institutions has rebounded slightly, but it is still at an all-time low. Last week (2022032120220325), Liangrong bought 481 million yuan, mainly in medicine, banking, food and beverage, real estate, transportation and other sectors, and mainly sold non-bank, nonferrous metals, electronics, coal and other sectors. The proportion of financing purchases in banking, military industry, communications, transportation, medicine, coal, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, light industry, real estate and other sectors increased month on month, but the proportion of financing purchases was below the historical center. In terms of style, Liangrong net buys the mid market value and net sells other types of style sectors.
Public offering positions rose slightly. The base people redeemed first and then “bottom reading” funds. The wide-based ETF mainly held by institutions continued to be redeemed sharply, and the scale increased month on month. Last week (2022032120220325), the A-share position of the active partial stock fund increased slightly. After excluding the factors of rise and fall, it mainly increased the position of food and beverage, consumer service, TMT, transportation, Dianxin, electric power and other sectors, and mainly reduced the position of medicine, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, nonferrous metals and chemical sectors. Last week, ETFs mainly held by individuals were net redeemed first, and they were net subscribed on Friday (20220325), which means that with the gradual rebound of the market, individual investors may continue to choose to redeem funds, and when the market starts to adjust, they will start to subscribe, and the market may still be in the state of “negative feedback” (i.e. “sell up, buy down”), which is related to technology, consumption, new energy ETFs related to financial, real estate and other sectors were mainly net subscribed, and ETFs related to medicine, cycle and other sectors were net redeemed. The consensus between the public offering and its debt side (individuals) is to buy technology, consumption, new energy and other sectors at the same time, and sell the pharmaceutical sector at the same time, while there are differences in the financial, real estate and cycle sectors. It is worth mentioning that last week, ETFs mainly held by institutions were still significantly net redeemed as a whole, and they were mainly broad-based, with an increase in scale compared with the previous week. For trend traders, Liangrong mainly buys large consumption, banking, real estate and other sectors; Northbound trading mainly bought nonferrous metals, light industry and other sectors. On the whole, all kinds of investors have a relatively high degree of consensus in the sectors of home appliances, communications, power and utilities, transportation, steel, consumer services, building materials, food and beverage and light industry. It is worth mentioning that at present, while continuing to “bottom” some consumption, science and technology and new energy sectors, active partial stock funds begin to gradually buy cyclical sectors such as coal, petroleum and petrochemical, which means that some public offering investors may have begun to switch, while long-term funds represented by northward allocation also choose to buy the above cyclical sectors. In addition, with the gradual withdrawal of two financial investors from the above sectors, The trading congestion of the above sectors is also gradually decreasing.
Risk tip: measurement error.
