Key investment points
Industrial high frequency periodicity observation. 1) Inflation. Last week (03.21-03.25, the same below), the price of pork rose to 18.22 yuan / kg, the specific price of pig grain rose to 4.26, the price of chicken, beef and mutton fell, the price of vegetables rose and the price of fruit fell. 2) Industry. Last week, the blast furnace operating rate fell, the operating rates of coking enterprises with various production capacities rose and fell, the rebar price rose and the inventory fell; Copper prices rose and inventories accumulated. 3) Consumption. The year-on-year growth rate of Automobile wholesale and retail fell sharply, and the film box office revenue and film viewers fell sharply. 4) Real estate. The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 cities rose on a weekly basis, and the transaction area of land in 100 cities fell on a weekly basis.
Weekly observation of financial markets. 1) Stock market. Last week, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 321224 points, down 1.19% week on week; The gem index closed at 263794, down 2.80% on week. From the perspective of industry sectors, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, real estate and comprehensive sectors led the rise, while computers, electrical equipment and building materials led the decline. 2) Bond market. The yield of interest rate bonds rose, the term interest rate spread narrowed, and the interest rate spread between China and the United States narrowed. On March 25, the yields of 1y treasury bonds, 10Y treasury bonds, 1y CDB bonds and 10Y CDB bonds closed at 2.16%, 2.80%, 2.34% and 3.05% respectively, and the week on week ratio changed by 5bp, 0bp, 3bp and 0bp respectively; The term spreads of 10y-1y treasury bonds and CDB bonds were 63bp and 71bp respectively, and the week on week ratio changed by – 5bp and – 2bp respectively; The interest rate difference between China and the United States closed at 32BP and narrowed by 34bp. 3) Commodities. Last week, commodity prices generally rose, rebar, coke, thermal coal, PTA, cathode copper, soybean meal and white granulated sugar futures prices rose, soybean oil futures prices fell, cement price index fell, Nanhua metal index rose, and ine crude oil futures prices rebounded to close at 723.10 yuan / barrel.
Weekly observation of macro policies. 1) Monetary policy. Last week, a total of 190 billion yuan was invested in reverse repurchase in the open market, 140 billion yuan was due for reverse repurchase, and a total of 50 billion yuan was invested in the broad open market in the whole week. Dr001 and dr007 closed at 1.98% and 2.22% respectively. In March, the yield of Shibor and 1y interbank certificates of deposit closed at 2.37% and 2.60% respectively. 2) Policy developments. The National Bureau of statistics released the profit data of Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size from January to February.
Core view. 1) Pig prices have risen, and the price ratio of pig to grain has rebounded. From the perspective of inflation, the supply of pigs is still in the stage of surplus, but recently, due to the spread of the epidemic in many places, the marketing and transportation of pigs were blocked. Last week, the price of pigs rose and the price ratio of pig to grain rebounded. The expectation of easing the conflict between Russia and Ukraine failed, and crude oil prices rebounded. From the perspective of supply, the operating rate of blast furnace is down, and the operating rate of medium-sized and large coking enterprises is up. In terms of demand, consumption is still weak, car wholesale and retail fell sharply year-on-year, and film box office revenue and person times continued to fall; The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 cities rose month on month, and the transaction area of land in 100 cities fell month on month. 2) The correction of real estate policy was relaxed, and the margin of sales data warmed up. The general tone of “no speculation in housing and housing” remains unchanged. The government work report mentioned that “support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers, stabilize land prices, house prices and expectations, and promote the virtuous cycle and healthy development of the real estate industry due to urban policies”. The policy side has always been an important factor affecting the development of the real estate industry. Recently, there has been marginal relaxation in the policies on the supply and demand side of real estate, from relaxing the loan limit, to standardizing the supervision of pre-sale funds, encouraging M & A loans, reducing the five-year LPR, and then to the continuous efforts of “one city, one policy”, reducing the down payment ratio, reducing the housing loan interest rate, liberalizing the sales restriction policies, etc. Recently, the loosening of local real estate policies may stimulate the sales side, Last week, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 cities increased month on month, among which the first tier, second tier and third tier cities increased month on month, and the margin of real estate sales recovered. However, it is hard to say in the short term that the sales side has stabilized. In February, the medium and long-term loans of residents were negative for the first time, which may take some time to transmit to the sales side; In addition, following Zhengrong, Yango Group Co.Ltd(000671) and other private real estate enterprises, rongchuang announced on Friday that it was difficult to cash 6 billion bonds. It plans to communicate with bondholders about the extension in the near future. Later, it will face the peak of the maturity of real estate corporate bonds, and the risk of the real estate industry remains. Whether the real estate industry should gradually relax and effectively deal with the risks mentioned in the follow-up meeting of the real estate commission remains to be studied and observed, and whether the real estate industry should gradually improve the prevention and response of risks needs to be put forward in a timely manner.
Risk tip: there is a risk of epidemic spread in China, and the overseas situation has changed more than expected.
