Macro weekly: multiple positive signals boost market confidence

The United States resumed 352 tariff exemptions for Chinese imports. On March 23, the office of the US trade representative said that it would resume the tariff exemption of some Chinese imports. The tariff exemption involves 352 of the previous 549 pending products. This provision will apply to goods imported from China between October 12, 2021 and December 31, 2022. A spokesman for the Ministry of Commerce said that the United States has resumed 352 tariff exemptions for imports from China, which is conducive to the normal trade of related products. China hopes that the United States, proceeding from the fundamental interests of consumers and producers in China and the United States, will cancel all tariffs imposed on China as soon as possible and promote bilateral economic and trade relations to return to the normal track as soon as possible. In November 2021, US Treasury Secretary Yellen said that tariffs pushed up prices in China, increasing costs for consumers and enterprises and pushing up inflationary pressure. In early January 2022, Gao Feng, spokesman of the Ministry of Commerce of China, expressed the hope that the US side would cancel the measures of imposing tariffs and sanctions on China as soon as possible, so as to create a good atmosphere and conditions for the two sides to expand trade cooperation. Recently, Chinese president Xi Jinping made a video call with US President Biden at request, which released a positive signal. This round of exemption accounts for nearly 70% of the total tariff categories imposed on Sino US trade under "article 301". However, according to China's demands, it can be followed up in the future, which may further expand the scope of tariff exemption. According to USTR, the categories involved mainly include machinery, automobile, light industry manufacturing and chemical industries. This round of exemption may also be beneficial to the above industries. On the whole, it may alleviate the inflationary pressure of the United States and China to a certain extent, and it is also conducive to the easing of Sino US trade relations.

The national development and Reform Commission and the Energy Administration jointly issued the medium and long term plan for the development of hydrogen energy industry (20212035). The plan points out that we should give full play to the guiding role of investment in the central budget and support the development of hydrogen energy related industries. Strengthen financial support, encourage banking financial institutions to support the development of hydrogen energy industry in accordance with the principles of controllable risk and commercial sustainability, and use scientific and technological means to provide accurate and differentiated financial services for high-quality enterprises. Encourage industrial investment funds and venture capital funds to support hydrogen energy innovative enterprises in accordance with the principle of marketization, and promote the transfer and transformation of scientific and technological achievements. Support qualified hydrogen energy enterprises to register for listing and financing on the science and innovation board, gem, etc. By 2025, the number of fuel cell vehicles will be about 50000, and a number of hydrogen refueling stations will be deployed. Hydrogen production from renewable energy has reached 1 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 00000 tons / year, which has become an important part of new hydrogen energy consumption and achieved carbon dioxide emission reduction of 1-2 million tons / year. The goal is to form a relatively perfect institutional and policy environment for the development of hydrogen energy industry, significantly improve the industrial innovation ability, basically master the core technology and manufacturing process, and preliminarily establish a relatively complete supply chain and industrial system by 2025. Overall, the plan provides strong support for the realization of the "double carbon" goal. Favorable for hydrogen energy related sectors.

The market was volatile and consolidated this week. The rise of coal, fishery and animal husbandry industries; Computer, non bank financial and social service industries led the decline. In late March, the financial commission of the State Council held a special meeting to boost market confidence; On the same day, the two sessions of the party, the State Administration of foreign exchange and other departments successively issued a voice to stabilize the market expectation. The Ministry of Finance proposed that "there are no conditions for expanding the pilot cities of real estate tax reform within this year" to stabilize the real estate expectation; The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25bp at its interest rate meeting in March, which is expected to land, and the overall market pessimism has been repaired. Looking back on the voice of vice premier Liu He in late October 2018, the market ushered in the bottom range of the policy after the continuous decline of Sino US trade friction. After 3-4 months of shock, in early 2019, under the storm of new regulations on goodwill impairment, Shanghai Stock Exchange ushered in the market bottom of 2440 points. However, the difference between the two times is that at that time, the Fed was in the stage of changing from the interest rate increase cycle to the interest rate cut cycle, while at present, it is the opposite. On the whole, however, the market may be at the bottom of the stage. Superimposed on the meeting between the heads of state of China and the United States and the resumption of 352 tariff exemptions for Chinese imported goods by the United States, the reduction of the proportion of down payment for house purchase in many places and the share repurchase by many overseas TMT companies, positive signals are released. It is expected that the market risk appetite will continue to repair in the future.

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