Looking back on Tuesday’s A-share market, Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets continued to adjust the pattern of shock. After the three major stock indexes opened slightly higher, they gradually weakened in shock. There was an upward performance in the session, but they suffered a rise and fall; In the afternoon, growth stocks continued to decline, the stock index plunged again, and the market performance was weak throughout the day.
As mentioned by Dongguan securities, the stock indexes of the two cities are weak and volatile, the volume of energy shrinks, and the wait-and-see mood is relatively strong. The Shanghai index temporarily holds 3200 points, but the overall profit-making effect of the market is poor. The short-term market still needs to wait for the gradual stabilization of the market, and pay attention to the support of the short-term average and the change of energy . In operation, it is suggested to focus on the layout of the middle line, and pay attention to the industries such as finance, real estate, building materials, electrical equipment and TMT.
Technically speaking, Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) pointed out that on Tuesday, the A-share market was blocked from rising and fell slightly. In the morning, the Shanghai index rose weakly, and core assets and growth stocks fell one after another, dragging down the stock index step by step. In the day, only defense industries such as agriculture, animal husbandry, fishery, chemical fertilizer, medicine and coal strengthened against the trend, and the Shanghai index fell slightly throughout the day.
In terms of the future market, the institution further analyzed that currently the stock index is in the process of secondary correction, and investors have a heavy wait-and-see mentality with cash. The trading volume of the two cities is 860 billion yuan, with significant characteristics of stock game, frequent hot spot rotation and great difficulty in short-term operation. The strength of the stock index in the future still needs strong external factors. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the changes of policy, capital and external market . It is expected that the short-term slight shock of the Shanghai index is more likely, and the short-term slight consolidation of the gem is more likely. Investors are advised to wait and see for a while in the short term and continue to pay attention to the investment opportunities of undervalued blue chips in the middle line.
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) said that the market remained in a state of narrow fluctuation near 3200, but the market’s profit-making effect was obviously poor and the weak characteristics were more obvious. The consolidation stage after the rebound was not suitable for short-term operation. It is suggested that patiently wait for the emergence of the adjustment panic point or the clarity of the rebound trend before participating .
Wanhe Securities pointed out that the current market is facing many uncertain factors outside China, the overall risk appetite is low, and the index shows a relatively obvious bottom seeking trend. In the short term, China’s epidemic situation has not improved significantly, and the pressure of economic repair is still large. Under the international conflict, the price of international raw materials fluctuates significantly, and China will still face a large risk of imported inflation. Although the index rebounded under the influence of the positive in the early stage, there are still many uncertain factors not released at present, and the overall situation of A-Shares is still looking for the bottom . The industry can pay attention to the industrial chain related to infrastructure and consumption.
In the macro aspect, Anxin securities mentioned that the repeated epidemic and the slowdown of the real estate industry are increasing the drag on the economy , which makes corporate profits face continuous deceleration pressure. This pressure seems to have not been alleviated in the first half of the year. At the same time, with the general outflow of foreign capital, the reversal of the trend of the equity market still needs to wait.
In addition, the narrowing of China US interest rate spread reflects the impact of the dislocation of China US economic and monetary policies . At present, the trend of China’s monetary policy still depends on the changes of economic fundamentals and credit environment. Under the background of economic slowdown and slow credit expansion, there is the possibility of further easing monetary policy in the second quarter.
In terms of operational strategy, Guosheng Securities pointed out that can focus on the real estate industry chain with reversal of difficulties, new energy infrastructure, banking and other industries with stable growth expectations, as well as coal, nonferrous metals and other related sectors with annual report and first quarter report exceeding expectations ; In the medium term, we can focus on the midstream and downstream manufacturing industries with improved corporate profits, such as new energy batteries, auto parts and other related industries.
Cinda Securities believes that the value style will continue to dominate in the first half of the year, and suggests paying attention to finance, real estate and construction . In the second half of the year, as the downward pressure on roe declined, the pressure on interest rates eased temporarily, the steady growth policy brought the economic bottom, and the growth style may be dominant in stages. From a long-term perspective, due to the transformation of cattle and bears, the semiconductor sales cycle has entered a phased correction, and the mainstream style will be partial to value most of the time in the next two years.
Bohai Securities said, after the emotional recovery brought by the meeting of the financial stability Committee, the market was again plagued by many uncertain factors . The external situation is complicated and confusing, which makes the crude oil price push up the risk of global inflation and increase the risk of external uncertainty; In China, since March, the epidemic situation has been severe and complex, which has had a certain negative impact on the normal production and operation of enterprises.
The agency further analyzed that the market may enter the stage of policy game under the background that the pressure for steady growth is rising due to external factors and China’s epidemic situation. In the short term, the market will maintain the bottom shock situation before the policy effectively promotes the expected reversal in the medium and long term, the goal of steady growth this year is relatively clear, and the comprehensive registration system reform will also be implemented within the year. The shock process of the market at the bottom will provide a good time window for allocating opportunities within the year. We should focus on the possible direction of the market in the next stage .
In terms of industry allocation, based on the judgment that the index will make up the gap downward, can pay attention to the sectors with strong rebound after the golden stability meeting , such as coal, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, tourism, aviation, etc., or step back in resonance with the index to complete the adjustment; At the same time, considering that US inflation is easy to rise but difficult to fall and the Fed’s interest rate hike raises the risk of stagflation, it is suggested to pay attention to the allocation opportunities of gold .
