Market review of transportation and social service industry this week
Among the 31 shenwanyi industries, the cumulative growth of social services and transportation industries this week (March 21-march 25) were - 2.60% and - 2.95% respectively, ranking 23rd and 25th respectively; The CSI 300 index rose by - 2.14%.
Among the 134 Shenwan secondary industries, this week (March 21-march 25), the cumulative increases of tourism retail, tourism and scenic spots, hotels and restaurants and airports were + 0.0%, - 2.9%, - 4.9% and - 5.6% respectively, ranking 49th, 109th, 129 and 132 respectively.
Covid-19 epidemic tracking
Diagnosis of covid-19 pneumonia: 1) China: from March 19 to March 25, China reported 13066 local confirmed cases (14282 last week), mainly in Jilin (Changchun, Jilin, Siping), Shanghai, Tianjin, Heilongjiang (Harbin), Guangdong (Shenzhen), Shandong (Binzhou), Fujian (Quanzhou), Hebei (Langfang), Jiangxi (Nanchang), Liaoning (Yingkou), etc. 2) Global: from March 19 to March 25, there were about 11.16 million confirmed cases of covid-19 pneumonia overseas, a month on month increase of - 11%; The number of deaths increased by 43222, a month on month increase of + 14%. There were 1.9 billion cases of pneumonia in the world, with a total of about 6.13 billion deaths by the end of 2023. 3) United States: from March 19 to March 25, about 210000 new cases of covid-19 pneumonia were diagnosed in the United States, down 9% month on month; A total of 6062 deaths were added, down 18% month on month. As of March 25, 2022, the cumulative diagnosis of covid-19 pneumonia in the United States is about 81.6 million, and the cumulative death is about 1 million. 4) UK: from March 19 to March 25, about 610000 new cases of covid-19 pneumonia were diagnosed in the UK, up 6% month on month; There were 950 new deaths, up 22% month on month. As of March 25, 2022, the cumulative diagnosis of covid-19 pneumonia in the UK is about 20.85 million and the cumulative death is about 170000.
Covid-19 vaccination: 1) China: according to the official website of the National Health Commission, as of March 25, the country had reported about 3.25 billion doses of covid-19 virus vaccine; At the same time, the third needle was introduced throughout the country to strengthen needle vaccination. About 4.13 million doses of covid-19 vaccine were vaccinated every day from March 19 to March 25, a month on month decrease of 14%.
2) Global: according to our world in data, as of March 25, about 11.16 billion doses of covid-19 virus vaccine had been vaccinated worldwide, and about 64% of the world's population had received at least one dose of vaccine.
3) Hong Kong plans to relax travel restrictions: according to the information reported in the big document, Hong Kong plans to cancel the current flight ban in nine countries from April 1, suspend the national nucleic acid testing, and relax most social distance measures in stages from April 21.
Airport & aviation: travel demand is impacted by local epidemic
1) industry: according to the vertical and horizontal data of air travel, from March 19 to March 25, the daily average number of flights executed by Chinese and international routes was about 3845, a year-on-year decrease of 70.4% in 2021, a year-on-year decrease of - 31.1% and - 72.3% respectively in 2020 and 2019, and a month-on-week decrease of 32.3%.
2) aviation department: from March 19 to March 25, according to the data of flying standard, the average daily flight numbers of Air China, China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, spring and autumn, Jixiang and Huaxia were 310, 696, 289, 107, 79 and 108 respectively, with the average of - 26%, - 26%, - 57%, - 46%, - 51% and - 29% respectively.
3) Airport: from March 19th to March 25th, according to the data of flight standard, the average daily take-off and landing sorties of Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) , Shanghai Pudong, Shanghai Hongqiao, capital airport, Beijing Daxing and Shenzhen Bao'an were 425, 121, 101, 196, 148 and 64 respectively, compared with - 31%, - 48%, - 50%, - 33%, - 47% and - 49% respectively last week.
Tax exemption: the tax-free discount on Hainan outlying islands was basically the same month on month
1) Hainan flight volume tracking: from March 19 to March 25, the average daily inbound and outbound flights of Sanya Phoenix Airport and Haikou Meilan International Airport were 140 and 238 respectively, a decrease of 11% and 18% respectively compared with last week; In the same period, the average daily passenger volume of Haikou Airport (expected) was 29096, a month on month decrease of 20.8%.
2) tax free channel discount tracking: on Sunday, the direct mail discount strength increased slightly month on month, and the tax free discount strength of China free outlying islands, Haifa control, maritime travel investment and China export service outlying islands were basically the same month on month.
Hotels: Huazhu group had a net loss of 465 million yuan in 2021, with a significant year-on-year reduction
According to the 2021 annual report of Huazhu group, the total revenue in 2021 was 12.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.4%; The net loss was 465 million yuan, and the net loss in the same period in 2020 was 2.19 billion yuan. Excluding DH (Deutsche Hotel Group), the income of Huazhu China in 2021 was 11.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.8%; The net profit is 150 million yuan, and the net loss in the same period in 2020 is 850 million yuan. In 21q4, the income of Huazhu group was 3.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.1%, but a month on month decrease of 4.9%; The net loss was 460 million yuan.
Investment advice
1) recommend Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) , Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) : the current valuation has the configuration cost performance, and the marginal travel demand in China is upward. Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) has signed a contract with LV, and the company is expected to usher in the double repair of performance and valuation.
2) three major airlines are recommended: domestic covid-19 oral specific drugs have been approved for listing, the dawn of international flight recovery may be at present, and the company will show great profit flexibility in the recovery stage.
3) recommendation Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) : China's transportation capacity accounts for a large proportion, its performance is the first to recover, its profit performance is more stable before the opening of the door, its long-term growth is high, and intercontinental routes are expected to become a new growth point.
4) recommendation Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) : obvious scale advantage, obvious improvement in management, accelerated overseas recovery, and is expected to usher in a period of rapid growth.
5) recommend Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) : leading industry of chain hotel group β， The light management mode opens up the incremental space of the sinking market. Under the three-year goal of 10000 stores, the number of hotels opened in 21-23 years is expected to reach 30%.
6) recommendation Zhejiang Ssaw Boutique Hotels Co.Ltd(301073) : the proportion of Direct stores in Junting is high, and that of Junlan resort hotel is high. The demand recovery stage is expected to show high elasticity, and the medium-term scale is expected to show high growth.
7) recommendation China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) : under the comprehensive layout of outlying islands + online + Airport + city, the company still has great growth space, and the expansion of outlying island duty-free stores in 22 years is expected to bring new catalysis.
Risk tips
The recovery of the epidemic was less than expected, the demand of the industry was less than expected, the oil price and exchange rate fluctuated sharply, the tax-free policy changed, and the competition in the tax-free industry intensified.
