Under the background of “double carbon”, the development plan of building energy conservation and green building was released: General Secretary Xi stressed in the 75th UN General Assembly that China’s carbon dioxide emissions should reach the peak by 2030 and strive to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. In the context of “double carbon”, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development issued the “14th five year plan” for building energy conservation and green building development plan “on March 11, 2022, which puts forward the development objectives of the green building industry during the 14th five year plan. Chinese scholars have proposed that by actively adjusting the industrial structure and energy structure and accelerating the transformation of development mode, China’s peak carbon dioxide emissions can be controlled between 11 billion tons and 12 billion tons by 2030. We draw lessons from the documents of the Ministry of housing and urban rural development and the articles of scholars, draw a simple calculation formula of carbon emission in China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) operation stage, and point out that the energy conservation and emission reduction of the construction industry mainly lies in reducing the energy consumption intensity per unit area.
The transformation and upgrading of buildings and building materials under the carbon peak goal is imminent: the construction industry is one of the industries with the largest energy consumption and carbon emission. In 2018, the global construction energy consumption and carbon emission accounted for 36% and 39% of the total respectively; The total carbon emissions of and account for 9.7 billion tons and 4.6 billion tons respectively, accounting for 9.7 billion tons and 4.6 billion tons in 2019. Referring to the research of scholars, we calculate that the peak value of carbon dioxide emission target in the whole process of construction in 2030 is about 5.18 billion tons; In 2030, the peak value of carbon dioxide emission target in the construction operation stage is 2.62 billion tons.
Building quality improvement is the general trend: in May 2021, Beijing first put forward the policy of “competitive land price + competitive quality” in the first batch of centralized land supply auctions, and then Hangzhou, Hefei, Nanjing and other places successively added the relevant content of “competitive quality” to the land auction; In March 2022, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development issued the 14th five year plan for building energy conservation and green building development, which defined the key tasks of the construction industry during the 14th Five Year Plan period. Under the background of “carbon peak – carbon neutralization” in the construction industry, the “competitive quality” proposed by Beijing has a demonstration effect. The planning of the Ministry of housing and urban rural development has given policy guidelines, which we believe will bring new development to green buildings / building materials during the 14th five year plan period.
Green building / building materials: a new blue ocean under the background of building energy conservation and carbon reduction: carbon emission reduction has an important impact on the whole life cycle of buildings, involving all aspects of the construction industry, such as prefabricated buildings, building thermal insulation materials, BIPV, building vibration reduction and isolation, evaluation of green building materials, etc. Prefabricated building is a low-energy and low emission building in line with the concept of green building. Compared with traditional concrete buildings, prefabricated PC building can reduce carbon emissions by about 5.6% in the whole life cycle, and prefabricated steel structure building has better energy conservation and emission reduction effect, which can reduce carbon emissions by about 40% in the whole life cycle; The potential market space for energy-saving transformation of public buildings is about 870 billion yuan. One of the key points of transformation is to increase the thermal insulation performance of buildings, which brings new growth space for thermal insulation materials; Photovoltaic building integration is one of the effective ways to achieve energy conservation and carbon reduction in the building operation stage, and BIPV has broad potential space; At present, building vibration reduction and isolation technology is mainly used in public buildings. Benefiting from the requirements of improving the quality of green buildings, its penetration rate in the residential field is expected to continue to increase; At present, there are only four testing institutions with three-star green building materials evaluation and marking qualification, and they are all national testing institutions. In the future, new buildings and green transformation of existing buildings will pay more attention to star evaluation, which is expected to bring new growth space to national testing institutions.
Investment suggestion: under the background of the “double carbon” goal, “competitive quality” reform and the guidance of the policy documents of the Ministry of housing and urban rural development, the fabricated construction industry, especially the fabricated steel structure industry, will benefit fully during the 14th Five Year Plan period. It is recommended that Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) , Changjiang & Jinggong Steel Building(Group)Co.Ltd(600496) . The green energy-saving transformation of existing buildings, especially existing public buildings, will bring development opportunities for thermal insulation, sunshade and energy-saving materials. It is recommended that Luyang Energy-Saving Materials Co.Ltd(002088) , Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , CSG A and Shandong Yuma Sun-Shading Technology Corp.Ltd(300993) . BIPV is an effective means to promote green building. The existing crystalline silicon system is probably adopted for roof photovoltaic, and it takes the lead in realizing large-scale application; Membrane Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) batteries may be used in the building facade as a supplement to building energy conservation. It is suggested to pay attention to Luoyang Glass Company Limited(600876) , Shandong Jinjing Science And Technology Stock Co.Ltd(600586) , China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) Xingye, Jangho Group Co.Ltd(601886) . Building seismic reduction and isolation technology has been applied in 7 of the first batch of 8 high standard evaluation projects for centralized land supply in Beijing in 2021, broadening the application market. It is suggested to pay attention to Quakesafe Technologies Co.Ltd(300767) , Zhejiang Tiantie Industry Co.Ltd(300587) . The demand for green star rating will continue to rise in the future, which is expected to bring new growth space to national testing institutions. It is suggested to pay attention to China Building Material Test & Certification Group Co.Ltd(603060) .
Risk analysis: the promotion of carbon emission reduction policy is less than the expected risk, the promotion of building energy conservation is less than the expected risk, the development of prefabricated buildings is less than the expected risk, accounts receivable risk, overseas operation risk and the tightening risk of credit environment.
