Macro
Affected by the high base of last year, the profit growth from January to February was significantly lower than that of last year. Specifically, from January to February, the year-on-year growth rate of industrial product prices fell, and the enterprise profit margin fell sharply, driving the enterprise profit growth to slow down significantly. In terms of structure, the differentiation of enterprise profit structure is still severe, the profit growth rate of mining industry continues to increase, while the profits of manufacturing industry and electricity, fuel and water supply industry are under obvious pressure, which drives the profit proportion of upstream mining industry to rise sharply. Looking ahead, the sustained and stable development of industrial economy in 2022 still faces many challenges, and it is urgent to continue the steady growth measures.
Tactics
Recently, Sino US economic and trade relations have shown signs of easing. After October last year, China US economic and trade relations will usher in a new stage of relaxation, and there will be no basic progress in the future. Since the trade friction between China and the United States in 2018, there have been two periodic easing. During this period, the overall performance of the stock market is good. In addition, the occurrence of trade easing events has a significant boost to the short-term performance of the stock market. The industries of 352 commodities included in the exclusion list are expected to take the lead in benefiting.
Metalworking
This week, the market fluctuated at a low level, the cross-sectional volatility narrowed sharply, and the market was in the stage of bottom shock. In terms of valuation, CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are at the “safety” level of valuation quantile. Electricity and utilities, automobiles, commercial retail, consumer services and media are at the “dangerous” level of the valuation quantile. From the perspective of capital in the north, the allocation of power equipment, new energy, medicine and banks, and the net sales of computers, national defense and military industries and automobiles; In the trading session, non-ferrous metals and light industrial manufacturing were overweight, with net sales of food and beverage, medicine and non bank finance.
Metalworking — quantification
The pb-roe-50 portfolio continued its excellent performance this week. The excess return of CSI 500 is 1.40%, that of CSI 800 is 0.51%, and that of the whole market is 2.06%. In terms of major factors, BP factor performs well, obtains an income of 0.48%, and has an obvious market value effect; The growth factor gains a positive return of 0.25%; The scale factor achieved an obvious negative return of – 1.18%, and the market small market value effect was obvious. In terms of single factor performance, valuation factors performed well, and growth factors retreated significantly.
Metalworking
The net breaking phenomenon of bank financial management occurs frequently, and ushers in a new test after the breaking of the exchange rate. At the end of February, the scale of public funds reached another record high, and the growth rate of public funds in China was significantly higher than the global level. This week, the issuance shares of new funds decreased, with a total of 14.469 billion, with an average of 467 million. In addition to the medium and long-term pure debt fund index, the fund index fell across the board. The net inflow of cross-border ETF and equity ETF was – 2.014 billion yuan and – 9.549 billion yuan respectively.
Fixed income — credit debt
In terms of the issuance scale of the primary market: from March 20 to March 26, a total of 270612 billion yuan of credit bonds (corporate bonds, corporate bonds, medium-term notes, short-term financing bonds and directional instruments) were issued, a decrease of 13.31% on a weekly basis; The total repayment was 263.12 billion yuan, and the net financing was 7.492 billion yuan, a decrease of 65.39% on a weekly basis. A total of 150 urban investment bonds were issued, with an issuance amount of 60.299 billion yuan. In terms of trading volume in the secondary market: a total of 714773 billion credit bonds were traded this week.
Fixed income — convertible bonds
Combined with the A-share market, we believe that investors can consider the following directions in the subsequent allocation of convertible bonds: 1) investors can pay attention to the convertible bonds corresponding to the planting industry and agrochemical industry. 2) Steady growth is still the main line. When market confidence has not fully recovered, we recommend investors to allocate convertible bonds corresponding to building materials, photovoltaic operation, power grid and other sectors. 3) The annual reports of listed companies have entered the intensive disclosure period, and the annual report market is still worthy of investors’ attention, especially for listed companies whose performance is expected to exceed expectations and whose plight is reversed, they can arrange their convertible bonds in advance.
Fixed income – interest rate debt
The executive meeting of the State Council decided to implement the policy arrangement of large-scale value-added tax rebate. The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation jointly issued an announcement to expand the scope of the incremental VAT allowance policy to eligible small and micro enterprises. China’s LPR in March remained unchanged for two consecutive months. This week, US bond yields rose rapidly across the board, and the Treasury bond yield curve hung upside down. This week, the capital level converged, and the short-term limited repo rate mainly increased. In the secondary market, treasury bond futures closed down, treasury bond yields fluctuated, and short-term interest rates rose.
