[main conclusions]
Macro economy: in China, the enterprise profit data from January to February increased over seasonality, of which the upstream mining industry was the main contribution. The trend of inclined profit distribution to the middle and lower reaches in the early stage was interrupted, and the costs faced by the middle and lower reaches were increased. Under the spread of the epidemic, inter city and inter city economic activities have weakened significantly since March. Internationally, the US consumer confidence index continued to deteriorate to a 10-year low in March.
Equity market: all A-share indexes fell, the undervalued factor performed relatively well, and the market sentiment was depressed. The epidemic situation, China's policy trend and China US relations are still important factors affecting the trend of a shares. The United States announced the resumption of tariff exemptions for some Chinese imports, and the Standing Committee will continue to express its determination to stabilize growth. China's macro-economy is still in a state of "slow economic recovery but weak absolute level, and policies continue to increase and stabilize growth", but at present, the implementation of substantive policies sufficient to reverse expectations is relatively limited.
Fixed income market: in the short term, before the additional epidemic prevention policy is lifted and the negative feedback of the real estate chain is broken, the broad credit is still blocked, the fundamental upward risk is controllable, the monetary policy remains loose, and the market may change from the early upward to the shock state. It is suggested that the long-term phased return to neutral. In the medium term, potential risks such as the trend of economy and CPI and the constraint of external liquidity still need to be vigilant.
