Core conclusion
Strategic point of view: from the macro environment, with the easing of concerns about the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the landing of the Fed's interest rate hike boots, Jinwen will release a strong signal of stability maintenance, and the sentiment of A-share market is expected to be further repaired. From the market level, the epidemic situation is still the marginal factor leading the market. From the experience of 202021, the repeated outbreaks at home and abroad are often accompanied by the downward revision of long-term economic expectations and the overall broadening of monetary policy, and the performance of China US growth sector will be relatively dominant; In addition, the rebound strength of A-share industries, including agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery and social services, deserves attention. Looking ahead, with the continuous optimization of epidemic prevention and control measures and the continuous improvement of nucleic acid detection and screening rate, it is still uncertain that the epidemic situation in China will be effectively controlled. From historical experience, the inflection point of the market also appeared earlier than the inflection point of the epidemic.
Industry allocation and gold stocks: we still emphasize that prosperity is the best defense. We suggest paying attention to three main lines: ① the annual report and the first quarterly report can determine the prosperity of new energy, semiconductor, medicine, military industry and so on. ② The necessary consumption sectors such as agriculture, food, textile and clothing benefiting from inflation expectations remain the main focus of the year. ③ Along the clues of epidemic repair, offline economic recovery related industries such as social service, retail, catering, shipping and traditional media are ushering in the layout window period. Based on the above configuration strategy, based on the above configuration strategy, the top ten gold stocks in April based on the top of the top ten gold stocks in April include: 601 Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) .
Macro view: under the resonance of internal and external factors, the uncertainty of steady growth increases. Since February, major economic zones such as the Pearl River Delta and the Yangtze River Delta have successively broken out, which will not only restrict consumption again, but also have a certain negative impact on infrastructure and real estate construction. In addition, the Fed's interest rate increase and table contraction may interfere with China's policies. The recent continuous flow of funds going north indicates that the situation in Russia and Ukraine has also disturbed China's liquidity environment. It is uncertain whether China will immediately increase its efforts to stabilize growth on the premise that there are variables in both internal and external situations. We believe that we need to be cautious about the equity market. Looking back, the emergence of three situations is expected to restore confidence in the market. The first situation: the epidemic has cooled down and reversed the pessimistic expectations of the market for the economy; The second situation: the economic and financial data are stronger than expected, allowing the market to eliminate the pessimistic expectation that factors such as the epidemic will restrict the economic outlook; The third case: cheap enough.
Metalworking point of view: compared with other broad-based funds, CSI 500 can more purely measure the change of market sentiment. Based on the current profit forecast, it basically faces the index point of 5800 in 2021. The low point of the market on March 16 is close to this position, and the bottom is relatively stable. According to the turning position of 6900 and 6400 points in the market, the annual net profit growth rate of CSI 500 is reduced, and the current expectation is about 19%, which is significantly lower than the consensus expectation of the market. From the bottom reversal in mid March, the market is relatively more confident in the certainty of the fundamentals of new energy, semiconductors and military industry. The pharmaceutical valuation has basically completed the return, while the consumption valuation is still possible to decline.
Risk tip: geopolitical conflicts exceeded expectations, Sino US trade frictions exceeded expectations, and the pace of policy promotion was lower than expected.
