Event: on March 27, 2022, the National Bureau of statistics released the profit data of industrial enterprises from January to February 2022. From January to February, the profits of industrial enterprises increased by 5.0% year-on-year.
Core view:
Affected by the high base of last year, the profit growth from January to February was significantly lower than that of last year. Specifically, from January to February, the year-on-year growth rate of industrial product prices fell, and the enterprise profit margin fell sharply, driving the enterprise profit growth to slow down significantly. In terms of structure, the differentiation of enterprise profit structure is still severe, the profit growth rate of mining industry continues to increase, while the profits of manufacturing industry and electricity, fuel and water supply industry are under obvious pressure, which drives the profit proportion of upstream mining industry to rise sharply.
Looking ahead, the sustained and stable development of the industrial economy in 2022 still faces many challenges. At this stage, the foundation for the recovery of manufacturing enterprises is not solid. Small and medium-sized enterprises are still facing great cost pressure and weak financing demand. It is urgent to continue the steady growth measures and consolidate the confidence of market players. Next, with the implementation of policies and measures such as tax reduction and fee reduction, ensuring supply and stabilizing price, the industrial economy is expected to maintain stable operation and balanced development.
Overseas observation: the US 10-year Treasury bond yields and inflation expectations rose slightly, while the UK and Germany 10-year Treasury bond yields rose; The interest rate term spread of 10-year and 2-year treasury bonds increased slightly. The asset scale of the Federal Reserve and the Central Bank of Japan increased, while the asset scale of the European Central Bank increased.
Declaration on military deployment and increase of military aid to Ukraine issued by NATO members at the summit; The United States added a new round of sanctions against Russia, emphasizing that the Russian central bank was not allowed to use gold reserves; The United States resumed 352 tariff exemptions for Chinese imports; Russian President Vladimir Putin said that "unfriendly countries" buy natural gas and only accept settlement in rubles; German economy minister announces Germany's plan to get rid of energy dependence.
Global assets: most global stock markets rose and most commodity prices rose. The NASDAQ rose 1.98%, the S & P 500 rose 1.79%, and the Dow Jones industrial average rose 0.31%; European stock markets were divided, with France CAC40 down 1%, Germany DAX down 0.74% and Britain FTSE 100 up 1.06%; Asian stock markets were divided, with the Shanghai composite index falling 1.19%, the Hang Seng index falling 0.04%, the Korea composite index rising 0.85% and the Nikkei 225 rising 4.93%. In terms of commodity prices, oil distribution and aluminum increased significantly, while copper prices fell. Precious metals and Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) prices generally rose.
Central bank observation: a number of Fed officials said that they would raise interest rates by 50 basis points in May; Several officials of the European Central Bank released the expectation of raising interest rates.
China Watch: since March, upstream: crude oil prices have risen month on month, power coal prices have fallen month on month, average coking coal prices have risen month on month, and copper and aluminum prices have risen month on month. Midstream: the cement price index fell month on month, the rebar price rose month on month, and the inventory decreased year on year. Downstream: the decline of commercial housing transaction area expanded, the growth rate of supply area increased year-on-year, the price of pigs fell and the price of vegetables rose. Liquidity: the yield of ten-year Treasury bonds rose.
China's policy: the central bank: promote the pilot research and development of digital RMB and expand the pilot scope in an orderly manner; "Finalization" of the heavy planning document for new energy, hydrogen energy and oil to lead China's energy revolution; Premier Li Keqiang chaired an executive meeting of the State Council to determine the policy arrangements for the implementation of large-scale value-added tax rebate.
Next week's financial calendar: China's manufacturing PMI in March (Thursday); Us new non farm employment in March (Friday)
Risk tip: the implementation of the policy is less than expected, and the repeated epidemic situation is more than expected.
