Summary:
On March 24, the NATO summit finally decided: first, continue to provide military assistance to Ukraine; second, strengthen the military deployment of NATO forces along the Baltic Sea, Eastern Europe and the Balkans; third, NATO member states agreed to increase military spending. At a time of tension between Ukraine and Russia, this action of NATO is undoubtedly adding fuel to the situation, or will increase Russia's determination to demilitarize Ukraine. Meanwhile, the EU summit on the 25th showed that although Russia's energy imports were not banned in the short term, it was also planning to gradually reduce its dependence on Russian natural gas and crude oil in the medium and long term. At present, the main impact of the situation in Ukraine and Russia on commodities is still obvious. On the one hand, the situation in Ukraine and Russia is still repeated, the fourth round of negotiations between the two sides has not made significant progress, the Russian military action has not stopped, NATO countries have also continuously increased their arms assistance to Ukraine and continuously increased sanctions against Russia; On the other hand, the shortage of crude oil supply under the Ukrainian Russian conflict has not been made up, the progress of the Iranian nuclear negotiations is slow, OPEC countries are not willing to accelerate the production increase plan, and the EU is also planning to gradually reduce its dependence on Russian natural gas and crude oil.
The tightening of global monetary policy accelerated. Last week, US Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that there is a certain probability of raising interest rates by 50bp at the next meeting; From the perspective of asset prices, European and US stocks have stabilized and rebounded, and the yield of US bonds has continued to rise, which is consistent with our analysis of the rebound of risky assets after the implementation of interest rate increase. For asset allocation, after the interest rate hike is implemented and before the interest rate meeting in May, it is expected to usher in a rebound window period of risky assets, during which it is necessary to continue to track the changes of inflation expectations.
The expectation of the central bank's "interest rate cut" failed. Last week, the central bank's LPR interest rate stood still. However, based on the recent special meeting of the financial committee, it was pointed out that the economy in the first quarter should be effectively revitalized, monetary policy should take the initiative to respond, new loans should maintain moderate growth, actively introduce policies conducive to the market, and carefully introduce contractionary policies and other words. We believe that the subsequent monetary easing policy is still worth looking forward to, and the easing expectation still has some support for a shares.
In terms of commodities, there are still some deviations from the current monthly and high-frequency economic data, and the real estate and infrastructure with high correlation with commodities have not yet made significant efforts. Since March, the performance of real estate financing is still weak, the issuance of credit bonds and ABS of real estate enterprises is significantly depressed year-on-year, and the issuance of new special bonds issued by infrastructure in the middle of the first half of the year is not satisfactory. At the micro level, according to our latest research, affected by the epidemic, snowfall, weak real estate and slow commencement of engineering projects, Downstream construction went down year-on-year for two consecutive weeks, and began to go down slightly month on month; In addition, the government is still increasing the policy of ensuring the supply and price stability of commodities. Under the game of strong expectation and weak reality, we still need to observe the signal of stabilizing and further improving domestic demand, and domestic demand industrial products remain neutral; Crude oil chain commodities need to be vigilant against the easing of the situation in Ukraine and Russia and the adjustment risks brought about by the conclusion of the US Iran nuclear negotiations; Affected by the situation in Ukraine and Russia, the global price of chemical fertilizer continues to rise, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) based on the supply bottleneck and cost transmission, the bullish logic is still relatively smooth, and the idea of bargain hunting and long is maintained; At the precious metals level, the Fed raised interest rates for the first time, superimposed high inflation in the United States, and maintained the view of bargain hunting and long.
Strategy:
Commodity Futures: Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) (soybeans, soybean meal, etc.), bargain hunting and long of precious metals; Industrial products for external demand (crude oil and its cost related chain commodities, new energy non-ferrous metals), industrial products for domestic demand (black building materials, traditional non-ferrous aluminum, chemical industry and coal)
Neutral;
Stock index futures: cautious.
Risk point: geopolitical risk; China curbs commodity overheating; The risk of Sino US game is rising; The situation in the Taiwan Strait; Iran nuclear talks.
