Strategic observation and market outlook: anti inflation and steady growth are still the main theme
Recently, the market mainly shows the following characteristics and changes: 1) inflation is still the core variable affecting large categories of assets, and US stocks have won significantly in anti inflation industries such as energy and materials; 2) Recently, US bond yields have risen rapidly, and the interest rate gap between China and the United States has narrowed significantly, which has raised concerns about capital outflow and insufficient space for follow-up monetary policy; 3) The impact of the epidemic continues, but the inflection point may be approaching; 4) The real estate policy has been significantly relaxed recently.
Strategic allocation: we believe that the main challenge of the current global economy still lies in combating “inflation” and “stagnation”, which also brings two main opportunities, namely anti inflation and stable growth. 1) Anti inflation main line: referring to the performance of US stocks, we believe that upstream energy, materials and Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) opportunities deserve special attention. On the evening of March 25, China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) disclosed the cash dividend plan for 2021, with a total dividend of 50.466 billion yuan. The beautiful performance and high dividends may further catalyze the energy sector; At the same time, recently, China’s soybean prices have risen significantly, and the rising oil prices have also boosted Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) prices. It is suggested to pay attention to opportunities in grain, sugar and livestock and poultry breeding; In addition, it is suggested to focus on the opportunities of anti inflation precious metal sector; 2) Main line of steady growth: under the disturbance of the epidemic and the intensification of geographical conflicts, the pressure on China’s steady growth is further increased, and the force of follow-up steady growth policies is expected to accelerate. It is suggested to pay attention to major financial opportunities such as real estate and new and old infrastructure opportunities. At the same time, the stable growth sector overlaps with the undervalued sector. Since the beginning of the year, under the decline of global risk appetite, the style index has a significant negative correlation with the P / E ratio, and the undervalued sector has won significantly. In addition, in the short term, the rise of US bond interest rate may continue to suppress the growth sector, but in the medium term, with the decline of the valuation end of the sector and the high prosperity, the attraction of growth sectors such as electronics, computers, national defense and military industry, medicine and Biology is also gradually increasing.
Global asset review
1) bond market: US bond interest rates rose significantly, and the interest rate gap between China and the United States narrowed significantly;
2) exchange rate: the US dollar remains strong; Japan’s low inflation supports the continuation of loose monetary policy and the depreciation of the yen exchange rate;
3) stock market: the stock indexes of major countries in the world are mixed, and the low price and low price earnings ratio style of A-Shares wins.
4) bulk commodities: generally rising and oil prices rising sharply.
Risk tips
Repeated outbreaks; Intensifying geopolitical conflicts; The economic recovery is less than expected; The steady growth policy was less than expected
