Lithium battery
The lithium battery index fell 2.10% in the current period, which is equivalent to the overall Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index. The short-term Shanghai composite index is expected to be dominated by shocks. Combined with the prosperity of the industry and the trend of the sector, the short-term lithium battery sector is generally cautious. It is suggested that after the index stabilizes, we should pay attention to the high-quality targets with undervalued segments and determined performance growth.
Risk warning: systemic risk; The price of raw materials fluctuates greatly; The sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected; Industry competition intensifies
Chemical industry
In this period, CITIC basic chemical industry index fell 0.45%, outperforming Shanghai stock index by 0.74 percentage points and Shanghai Shenzhen 300 index by 1.69 percentage points, ranking 12th among 30 CITIC primary industries. Among CITIC’s tertiary sub industries, 19 rose and 14 fell, with potash fertilizer, food and feed additives and inorganic salts leading the performance. Suggested attention: coal chemical industry and chemical fertilizer sector.
Risk tip: the price of raw materials fluctuates sharply, the price of products drops sharply, and the strength of environmental protection policies is lower than expected.
Food and beverage
In the current period, the food and beverage sector fell 3.17%, and all sub sectors ended lower except the meat products sector. The long-term unilateral decline of the food and beverage sector is caused by the deterioration of the performance of listed companies, the high local valuation and the pessimistic expectation of the market for consumption. In the first and second quarters of 2022, the performance of listed companies is expected to reach the bottom. In the second half of 2022, the cost is expected to fall systematically, and the profitability of the manufacturing industry will improve accordingly. The secondary market in the second half of the year is worth looking forward to. The middle of 2022 will be the key time when the fundamentals hit the bottom and the market is expected to rise. Due to the deep decline in the food sector in the early stage, many core assets already have valuation advantages. It is suggested to pay attention to the core targets of the deep decline in the early stage, including blue chip assets and growth assets.
Risk warning: rising manufacturing costs; Residents’ consumption is weak.
Medicine
Market review: in this period, the pharmaceutical industry rose by 0.54% as a whole, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fell by 2.14% in the same period, which was stronger than the market as a whole.
Investment suggestion: it is suggested to pay attention to covid-19 prevention and control API and enterprises related to the industrial chain.
Risk tip: the epidemic development exceeded expectations
Computer
The computer industry fell 3.77% in the current period, significantly underperforming the market and gem index, ranking 29th in CITIC industry. 242 stocks fell, 3 were flat and 49 rose. At present, the epidemic situation in China and the outflow of foreign capital still plague the market and have a great impact on the market performance of the industry. There is still no turnaround in the short term. It is suggested to temporarily reduce the configuration of the industry.
Risk warning: uncertainty of international situation; The upper reaches of enterprises cut spending under inflation; Local debt risk release; The impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations.
Securities
After the correction of short-term rebound, the brokerage index of this period fluctuated and weakened again, and the performance was weaker than expected. In a short period of time, the brokerage sector will still maintain the trend of weak shock at the bottom of the market.
Risk tips: 1 The short-term growth rate is too fast and the growth rate is too large, resulting in the rapid adjustment of securities companies; 2. The market performance of the secondary equity industry cannot be improved due to the continuous improvement of the secondary equity market; 3. The progress and strength of comprehensively deepening the reform of the capital market are less than expected.
Photovoltaic
In this period, the photovoltaic industry fell by 5.97%, significantly underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index. The weekly turnover of photovoltaic sector was 148688 billion yuan, a month on month contraction. Individual stocks in the sector fell more and rose less, with poor profit-making effect. In the near future, the State Commission has issued a plan for the comprehensive development of renewable energy and the construction of a high-quality wind energy storage and consumption system to support the large-scale development of renewable energy. From January to February, the off-season demand for photovoltaic is not light, and under the expectation of silicon supply growth, the probability of high increase in photovoltaic installed capacity throughout the year is high. The valuation of the sector is above the historical median valuation. It is not excluded that the valuation is further compressed due to the reduction of market risk appetite. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading enterprises in the field of thermal field materials, photovoltaic glass, integrated module factory and inverter with reasonable valuation in the medium and long term.
Risk warning: the global installed demand is less than expected; Performance growth was less than expected.
In the current period, the bank (CITIC) index fell 0.12%. Among the segments, the index of state-owned banks rose by 1.10%, the index of joint-stock banks fell by 1.30%, and the index of regional banks rose by 1.18%. The insurance index fell 1.17% and the real estate index rose 3.89%. Over the same period, the CSI 300 index fell 2.14%. Compared with the macro disturbance, we pay more attention to the improvement of the “internal strength” of the industry. It is considered that the extremely low valuation level of the current banking sector fully reflects the pessimistic expectations of the market on the credit risk exposure and macroeconomic downturn of the real estate industry. At the same time, considering the good performance growth and continuously improved asset quality of the bank, it is considered that the current sector has high allocation value and maintains the investment rating of “stronger than the market” of the industry. It is suggested to focus on the head state-owned banks and joint-stock banks with solid asset quality, as well as the head urban commercial banks and rural commercial banks in regional economically developed areas.
Risk tip: the asset quality has deteriorated significantly, resulting in systemic risk.
Media
Investment view: the epidemic situation in China has begun to repeat again, and some cities have begun to carry out relatively strict personnel flow control measures, which may have a certain impact on the offline film market and offline advertising in the short term. According to the cat’s eye professional edition, since March 11, the operating rate of cinemas across the country has continued to decline, falling from 91.83% on March 11 to 45.66%. There are 1.575 million weekly screenings across the country, which is close to the weekly screenings after the resumption of cinemas in August 2020, indicating that the China Film Co.Ltd(600977) market is facing great operational pressure in the short term. In addition, the state film administration stressed the need to strictly grasp the epidemic prevention and control work and make every effort to do a good job in the epidemic prevention and control of cinemas, which means that the relatively strict epidemic prevention policy of cinemas will continue. In the medium and long term, with the decline of the number of confirmed cases, the order at the social level will gradually return to normal, and the impact of repeated outbreaks is expected to gradually weaken. On March 16, the special meeting of the financial stability and Development Commission of the State Council said that it would carefully introduce contractionary policies, and the game version number issue may usher in the dawn.
Risk warning: the risk of international political turmoil; The risk of repeated outbreaks and virus mutation; The tightening of regulatory policies exceeded expectations; Intensified market competition; Goodwill impairment risk; The quality of output content is lower than expected; The characteristics of project system lead to unstable performance.
Machinery
In this period, CS machinery sector fell 1.52%, outperforming CSI 300 (2.14%) by 0.62 PCT, ranking 19th in 30 CS primary industries. Continue to focus on the mainstream track of scientific and technological growth. In the short term, the track of mainstream new energy equipment and semiconductor equipment has been fully adjusted, and there are signs of oversold rebound. It is suggested to actively participate in the opportunity of bottom reading rebound of the leader of the growth track. In the medium and long term, we will continue to pay attention to the mainstream growth track represented by new energy photovoltaic wind power equipment, lithium battery equipment and specialized new small giant enterprises. The policy has focused on stabilizing growth for many times, and the oil price has continued to rise sharply, at a high level, which is good for the leaders of oil and gas equipment and other sectors.
Risk warning: macroeconomic downturn; The price of raw materials continues to rise sharply; Major changes have taken place in the new energy policy.
Electronic
The current electronics (Shenwan) index fell 3.1%, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index (- 2.14%) in the same period, ranking 27th among 31 Shenwan level industries. From a long-term perspective, the demand for 5g + alot, automotive electrification and intelligence, VR / AR, smart home and other application fields will continue to grow. In addition, due to the complex changes in the current international economic and political situation, there is an urgent demand for domestic substitutes in the upstream of chips, electronic devices, raw materials and so on.
It is suggested to pay attention to the industrial chain of power semiconductor, automotive electronics and VR.
Risk tips: 1) the progress of domestic production is lower than expected; 2) The cost of upstream raw materials remains high; 3) The development of advanced technology of Chinese manufacturers may not be as expected; 4) Systemic risk.
Household appliances
This week, CITIC’s home appliance industry index fell 0.89%, ranking 19th in CITIC’s first-class industry classification. According to statistical data, China’s consumption expenditure boosted economic growth by 5.3 percentage points in 2021, and its contribution rate to economic growth reached 65.4%. Therefore, it can be seen that consumption has become the first driving force of economic growth. Considering the current policy side, the implementation of a series of policies and measures such as reducing taxes and fees and promoting consumption of household appliances will promote the recovery of the demand of household appliances market; As for the supply side, under the active promotion of industrial structure upgrading by household appliance enterprises, the product quality and intelligent level are continuously improved, and the household appliance industry may gradually usher in the recovery stage.
Risk warning: repeated epidemic situation; The market demand is less than expected; Industry competition pattern intensifies; Risk of continuous fluctuations in raw material prices, shipping costs and exchange rates.
Agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery
In this period, the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (CITIC) industry increased by 3.46%; The CSI 300 index fell 2.14%, and the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry outperformed the benchmark index by 5.60 percentage points. From the perspective of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry, the planting sector increased the most this week, closing up 9.18%; The aquatic processing sector ushered in a correction after rising, down 5.61%. Suggestions: focus on the pet food sector in the high growth track and the seed industry sector with policy expectations.
Risk warning: the risk of sharp fluctuations in livestock and poultry prices and raw material prices; Risk that the progress of relevant policies of seed industry is less than expected; The aggravation and deterioration of African swine fever has led to the risk that the slaughter volume of pigs is less than expected.
