Main points
Market view: the oversold rebound is still in sight, and the scenery should be long-term. There was a significant adjustment in the market in March. The situation in Russia and Ukraine superimposed on the local spread of the Chinese epidemic, which suppressed the A-share market, frequently switched market hotspots and made trading more difficult. Looking forward to April, first, it is expected that the risk appetite of A-Shares is expected to be maintained under the main tone of the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee. Second, under the influence of poor market sentiment and no improvement signal of incremental funds, the main line switching of the market is expected to be frequent. It is suggested to continue to maintain balanced allocation and refine it.
The disturbance of the epidemic has intensified, the high-frequency data continues to be weak, and the policy is expected to continue to increase in the fields of infrastructure and real estate. The epidemic prevention situation across the country is still grim, and automobile consumption and catering services have weakened under the disturbance of the epidemic. With the sustained development of the steady growth policy and the commencement of infrastructure projects, the good trend of industrial production remains unchanged, but the supply of raw materials and rising prices still need to be paid attention to. Pork prices are low, but crude oil and vegetable prices rise. It is expected that CPI will rebound slightly, the year-on-year decline of PPI may change, and easing constraints will increase. Commercial housing sales continued to be weak, but infrastructure efforts hedged the decline of real estate, and manufacturing investment is expected to maintain a high growth rate under the high export boom. Focus on the verification of the effect of the first quarter economic data released in mid April on steady growth.
Macro liquidity continues to be abundant, and it is still possible to cut interest rates. Depending on economic data, especially real estate data, MLF is expected to be over invested; Micro liquidity is expected to pick up slightly and remain stable as a whole. The financial data in March is expected to be significantly improved compared with that in February. The maturity of MLF in April is small, and it is expected to continue in excess in March. The long and short ends of interest rates remain volatile, and the amplitude is expected to gradually narrow. The indicators show that the focus of investors' attention is still focused on the growth style. It is expected that the micro liquidity will pick up slightly and be stable as the market allocation value highlights. Risk appetite is difficult to improve significantly unless the steady growth policy is significantly overweight due to the deterioration of the real estate situation. In April, it is expected that the risk appetite will remain in a relatively sluggish state, which is difficult to improve significantly. The core still lies in the risks caused by the accelerated tightening of monetary policy by the external Federal Reserve and the concerns about the strength of internal steady growth policies, especially the strength of real estate regulation and control policies. The meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee in late April is expected to maintain the general tone of the central economic work conference as a whole. It is expected that the enthusiasm of the tone will not exceed expectations, and the policy will be mainly fine tuned. At the end of April, the market may worry again about the Fed's interest rate hike and table contraction. It is advisable to look at the quantity of scenery and change space with time. The current A-share has fallen to an undervalued value and has a good medium and long-term investment performance price ratio.
Industry allocation: maintain balanced allocation
Maintain balanced allocation. Looking forward to April, although the end of the policy has appeared, due to the slow recovery of risk appetite and the difficulty of substantial increase of incremental funds in the short term, the main line switching of the market will still be frequent. Therefore, it is suggested to continue to maintain balanced allocation.
From the medium and long-term perspective, we are still optimistic about the three main lines of the third stage of growth style (main line + diffusion), stable growth (new and old infrastructure, real estate and Banking) and consumption recovery (medicine, price rise main line and travel chain). However, in the short-term dimension, under the frequent switching of market hotspots, we suggest that the configuration should be more refined. Specifically: 1) the stable growth chain has high short-term cost performance, and can continue to participate in the upstream and downstream of real estate Banks and new and old infrastructure. On the one hand, in order to achieve the GDP growth target of 5.5%, the resonance of infrastructure and real estate is a necessary condition, and the upstream and downstream demand of the industry is expected to rise; On the other hand, under the background that the gold stability Committee emphasized "effectively invigorating the economy in the first quarter" and "preventing and resolving risks in the real estate field", the further relaxation of follow-up real estate policies and the accelerated commencement of infrastructure projects are high probability events, which greatly boosted the risk appetite of the sector. 2) In the medium and short term, we can continue to participate in the opportunities related to the main line of medicine and price increase (planting industry / chemical fertilizer). Before the inflection point of the epidemic, the travel chain (Airport / hotel / catering, etc.) is mainly concerned. Under the catalysis of multiple positive factors, the risk appetite of the pharmaceutical sector has been greatly boosted, and the valuation repair market can continue to be grasped in the short term; China's corn and soybean prices are still high under the influence of international Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) influence. Under the logic of smooth price increase of mandatory consumer goods, the performance of planting industry and chemical fertilizer is expected to be stronger; The performance of the travel chain has a great relationship with the epidemic. Although we are optimistic about the recovery of medium and long-term service consumption, it is recommended to focus on it before the inflection point of the epidemic. 3) For the growth style, it is suggested to adjust the growth main line of power equipment, electronics and other industries. Based on the in-depth resumption of the three growth articles, we are still optimistic about the growth style, and there is a third stage pull-out valuation market. However, under the background of low market risk preference and heavy wait-and-see mood in the near future, the probability of sharp pull-out valuation in the short term is low. Therefore, on the premise of medium and long-term optimism, it is suggested to adjust the main growth industries such as power equipment and electronics in the early stage.
Risk tips
The development of Omicron mutant strain exceeded expectations; China's economic downturn exceeded expectations; China's policy tightening exceeded expectations; Sino US relations deteriorated beyond expectations.
