Since 2022, based on the macro background of the Fed's interest rate hike and China's steady growth, we have issued a series of reports and proposed to shift from "three highs" to "three lows". Combined with the macro, financial report and policy dimensions, we expect that the "three low" strategy in the second quarter will still have advantages. How to further explore the specific sub field selection?
Dig three low, invincible
On the logic behind the "three lows" strategy, in the "avoiding the real and beating the false" released on March 19, we systematically combed from the macro, performance and policy dimensions, that is, the macro dimension, the potential impact of the Fed's interest rate hike and the corporate profit fluctuation of a shares, the two major factors still need to be inflected; In the performance dimension, the three low sectors represented by resource products, mandatory consumption and some real estate chains have shown their comparative advantages; Third, the policy dimension, travel chain and the fundamentals of steady growth have been continuously strengthened.
Quantitative scoring, qualitative clues
If the quantitative method is used to calculate the comprehensive fund position, valuation level and stock price position, we adopt the scoring mode, that is, one point will be added for the fund position accounting for the last 50%, one point will be added for the valuation quantile accounting for the last 50%, and one point will be added for the stock price position accounting for the last 50%. The scoring results show that the industries with a score of 3 include transportation, light industry, textile and clothing and environmental protection; The industries with a score of 2 include media, non bank finance, mechanical equipment, real estate, public utilities, commerce and retail, building materials, petroleum and petrochemical, communication, steel and media. Combined with the rise and fall performance since 2022, the three low strategy has significant advantages. The average score of the industry with the top one-third increase is 1.7; The average score of the industry with the increase ranking in the middle third is 1.7; The average score of the last third industry is 0.9.
From a qualitative point of view, these industries are concentrated in areas related to steady growth, such as real estate chain (real estate, light industry, construction, building materials, etc.), travel chain (Transportation), mandatory consumption (commercial retail, textile and clothing), high dividends (utilities, communications, etc.).
Prosperity is the spear and three lows are the shield
Combined with the profit forecast of various industries since March, it can be found that non-ferrous metals, power equipment, coal, communication, transportation and basic chemical industry have been repaired, while the profits of other industries are mainly repaired below.
We think we can pay attention to the profit forecast changes that further sink to the secondary industry, focusing on the in-depth excavation of the "three low" sector: first, consumer goods must be selected, represented by cosmetics, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) processing and professional chains; Second, the price chain, represented by coal, metals, agrochemical products and gas; Third, stabilize the growth chain, represented by transportation, construction and banks.
In addition, on the one hand, for the damaged chain of the epidemic, although the boom is affected by the recent epidemic, with the more refined and scientific epidemic prevention and control and the promotion of covid-19 specific drugs, we can pay attention to the repair opportunities after the weakening impact of the current round of epidemic; Second, for the new growth chain, it is expected that the opportunities in the second quarter will be dominated by individual stocks, focusing on semiconductor, communication services, energy storage and other fields.
Risk tip: the performance growth of the sector is lower than expected; Global liquidity tightened more than expected.
