One week resumption:
This week, power equipment and new energy (CITIC level I) fell 3.76%, 1.62 percentage points behind the market. In terms of overall market performance, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.19%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fell 2.14%, and the gem index fell 2.80%. Among the sub sectors of power equipment, electrical equipment decreased by 2.21%, wind power decreased by 5.74%, and photovoltaic power decreased
Down 6.40%.
Photovoltaic:
1. The price of the industrial chain tends to be stable, and the demand for photovoltaic in Europe is expected to continue to increase in 2022q2. According to the statistics of the silicon industry branch, under the background that the release of silicon material capacity is less than expected and the progress of silicon wafer new release capacity is accelerated, the situation of silicon material supply in short supply continues, the price of silicon material has increased for 10 consecutive weeks, and the average transaction price of single crystal re feeding has increased by 0.16% to 248200 yuan month on month; On the other hand, according to solarzoom’s statistics, the prices of downstream links remained stable this week, and the rapid rise of European traditional energy prices is expected to stimulate photovoltaic demand in the short term.
2. The total installed capacity of new energy in the “14th five year plan” of 22 provinces exceeds 600gw. According to the statistics of Zhihui photovoltaic, the 22 provinces that have released the relevant plans of the 14th five year plan have more than 600gw of new renewable energy installed capacity, of which the newly installed capacity explicitly planned as photovoltaic exceeds 250gw; According to the modern energy system planning of the 14th five year plan issued by the national development and Reform Commission, the proportion of non fossil energy power generation will reach about 39% by 2025. According to the calculation of singularity energy, the annual installed scale of new energy from 2022 to 2025 should be higher than 125gw. Looking forward to 2022q2, as the industrial chain price drops after the release of silicon production capacity, China’s large base and overseas new energy transformation
The demand is expected to start, and we are optimistic that the shipment of 2022q2 industrial chain will maintain a high growth. 3. In terms of investment: (1) the demand boom in 2022q1 is improving, pushing up the prices of products in all links. With the release of upstream capacity in Q2, the price of the industrial chain is expected to decline, and the end of the interest rate increase cycle in the first stage. At the same time, China accelerates the construction of new infrastructure (photovoltaic, etc.), the photovoltaic industrial chain ushers in better allocation opportunities. It is mainly recommended to focus on leading Jingke energy, Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) . (2) In 2022q1, the price of some auxiliary materials may rise due to the release of demand, the price rise of raw materials, the shortage of structural supply and demand and other factors. Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) , especially Luoyang Glass Company Limited(600876) . (3) Under the background of industrial chain game, the supply and demand situation of large-scale products is relatively good. 210 product leaders are recommended from bottom to top. At the same time, the semiconductor silicon wafer business has ushered in a high-speed development Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) . (4) Overseas demand and distributed photovoltaic demand will be released first in the process of module price decline, with emphasis on Jinko Power Technology Co.Ltd(601778) , Zhejiang Chint Electrics Co.Ltd(601877) .
Wind power:
1. The bidding price of wind turbines in China continues to decline, and the domestic substitution + Dual sea strategy is the long-term development direction of the wind power industry. Recently, the bidding prices of China’s sea breeze and land breeze have continued to decline (in terms of sea breeze, the quotation of Dongfang Electric Corporation Limited(600875) including tower of zheneng Taizhou No. 1 sea breeze project is 3548 yuan / kW; in terms of land breeze, the quotation of prospective energy including tower of China Resources Power UTRA Zhongqi project is as low as 1889 yuan / kW). Under the condition of rapid decline of bidding price, if enterprises want to maintain profitability, they need to open source (sea + offshore wind power) and reduce costs (localization of parts and components); In the context of large-scale and domestic substitution, the process of sea wind parity is expected to accelerate. In the future, if the national level also continues to strengthen the development and approval of projects in sea areas under state control, we believe that the new installed capacity of China’s offshore wind power during the 14th five year plan period is expected to exceed expectations.
2. In terms of investment: (1) Haifeng construction is expected to exceed expectations and under the logic of domestic substitution, recommend Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) , pay attention to Dajin Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(002487) , Jiangyin Hengrun Heavy Industries Co.Ltd(603985) ; (2) Focus on Zhejiang Xcc Group Co.Ltd;(603667) , Luoyang Xinqianglian Slewing Bearings Co.Ltd(300850) ; (3) Under the logic of profit recovery: focus on Riyue Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(603218) , Sany Heavy energy (to be listed).
Risk warning: the release progress of scenery policy is less than expected; The recovery of fan bidding price is lower than expected, and the price of raw materials in the industrial chain fluctuates; The investment and information construction of the State Grid were lower than expected, which hindered the landing of installed capacity.
