Core view
The driving force of power development has changed from traditional coal power to new energy. In March 2022, the national development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the “14th five year plan” for modern energy system, which planned and deployed China’s efforts to build a modern energy system and promote high-quality energy development during the 14th Five Year Plan period. According to the plan, by 2025, China’s total installed power generation capacity will reach about 3 billion kw, including 380 million kw of conventional hydropower, 62 million kw of pumped storage and 70 million kw of nuclear power. According to the above data, it is estimated that in 2025, the total installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaic power will reach 900-1 billion kw, the installed capacity of biomass power generation will reach 40 million KW, and the installed capacity of non fossil energy power generation will exceed 50% of the total installed capacity. Under the catalysis of the “double carbon” goal, the driving force of power development has changed from traditional coal power to new energy.
The market demand recovered slowly, and the prices of cement and glass decreased. The cement price decreased slightly month on month this week, mainly due to the slow recovery of downstream market demand and the increase of supply after staggered peak shutdown in various provinces and cities. At present, cement has gradually entered the peak season of the industry. With the warmer weather, the operating rate of downstream construction sites shows a steady upward trend, the market demand will gradually recover, and the cement price is expected to rise steadily. In terms of supply, the staggered peak shutdown of kilns in most areas is over, and the cement supply is gradually restored. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading enterprises in the cement area. This week, the spot price of float glass continued to show a downward trend, the start of downstream demand was lower than expected, the market just needed to perform in general, and the inventory increased compared with last week. It is expected that with the recovery of the downstream completion end, the market demand for float glass will increase steadily, and the price has room for improvement.
On the premise of steady economic growth, coal consumption is expected to maintain a certain positive growth. Valuable and growing: the dividend yield of the coal sector is at the forefront of various industries, and the dynamic P / E ratio of the sector is less than 10 times. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, coal consumption can still maintain positive growth. During the 15th Five Year Plan period, with the development of clean and efficient utilization technology of coal, China’s coal has natural price advantages in traditional fossil energy (coal, oil and natural gas), which is expected to be more applied in coal power and non power fields. On the premise of steady economic growth in China, coal consumption is expected to maintain a certain positive growth. Invest in coal stocks and enjoy the dividends gradually realized by the cost advantage of coal. Policy regulation will cause the repetition of the investment process, but the long-term direction is clear.
Investment recommendations: Environmental Public: recommendations for environmental protection and public: investment recommendations: Environmental Public: investment recommendations: Environmental Public: recommendations for the public: recommendations for the China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) ( Shandong Intco Recycling Resources Co.Ltd(688087) . SH). Building materials: building materials: building materials: recommended China new cement ( Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) . SH), shares ( Yonggao Co.Ltd(002641) . SZ), shares ( Yonggao Co.Ltd(002641) . SZ), shares ( Yonggao Co.Ltd(002641) . SZ), Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) ( Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) . SH). Coal: recommended China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) ( China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) . SH), Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) ( Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) . SH), Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) ( Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) . SZ)
Risk warning: the risk of sharp fluctuations in raw material prices; The risk that the downstream demand is less than expected; The risk that the landing effect of production restriction is not as good as expected; The risk that the policy strength is less than expected; The risk that the new capacity of the industry exceeds the expectation; The risk of sharp decline in coal prices under the pressure of policy regulation.
