As far as the external environment is concerned, in terms of the epidemic situation, the number of new cases per day still exceeds 1 million / day after a sharp decline. The problem of the epidemic situation on the global economy is far from being eliminated, and it is still an important variable in global socio-economic activities; If influenza treatment can be implemented globally, it will certainly be conducive to the recovery of the supply side, and then help to alleviate the global inflationary pressure. In terms of economy, the higher prosperity level, the continuous good employment situation and the more severe inflationary pressure have become the main portrayals of the current developed economies. In terms of policy, not only is inflation still the focus of policy regulation, but also considering the obvious lag of the Fed's interest rate increase this round, it is necessary to speed up the process of interest rate increase and increase the range of interest rate increase. Therefore, in the second quarter, the confirmation and strengthening of monetary tightening expectation will still dominate market sentiment, and the impact of valuation disturbance on financial assets needs to be paid close attention to.
As far as China's economy is concerned, although the economic data from January to February are generally better than market expectations, structural problems are still prominent and the foundation for economic recovery is still not solid. The weakening of overseas demand expansion, the reverse bite of the order transfer effect and the promotion of China's steady growth measures will continue to suppress the scale of net exports. The sluggish real estate sales and the high structural unemployment rate in the labor market will continue to curb demand expansion. Superimposed on the impact of the epidemic, the need for demand care is still strong.
In terms of inflation, when the supply side is impacted again, commodity prices rise significantly, and crude oil prices continue to rise sharply, strengthening imported inflation again. Looking ahead, the rebound of Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) prices since late February will push up the month on month growth of food prices in March. At the same time, the continuous rise of gasoline and diesel prices will support non food prices. Coupled with the slight rise of tail raising factors, the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in March will obviously rise to 1.9%. For PPI, the obvious decline of tail warping is still the leading factor, and promoted the year-on-year growth rate of the current month to about 7.5%.
In terms of policy regulation, in view of the structural worries in the economic recovery, measures to stabilize growth still need to be strengthened. In the case of "demand contraction" and "expectation weakening", the effect of total monetary adjustment is weak, and may even induce financial risks from real to virtual. Therefore, although total easing can still be expected, its necessity is low and structural regulation will still be the focus before the credit easing has not been effective and the supply side has not become a restrictive factor. If monetary protection is understood as a catalyst for icing on the cake, the industry regulator who directly focuses on the fiscal stimulus of aggregate demand and improving market expectations is the current solver to promote credit easing and stabilize aggregate demand.
Risk tip: the development of the international epidemic exceeded expectations
