Real economy: this week, the situation of epidemic prevention and control is still grim, the industrial operating rate has warmed up, but the inventory has been divided; The margin of commercial housing sales has warmed up, and the primary land market is still depressed; Most of the black commodity futures and spot prices rose, and the Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) price was relatively weak. 1) From last Saturday to this Friday (March 19 to March 25), a total of 13066 new confirmed cases were added in 23 provinces and autonomous regions such as Jilin, Fujian and Liaoning, slightly better than 14281 new cases in 24 provinces and autonomous regions from March 12 to March 18. 2) The operating rate has warmed up. Among them, the operating rate of petroleum asphalt units and mill operation rate related to infrastructure increased by 2.1 percentage points and 5.7 percentage points respectively month on month, but they are still lower than the average level in the same period of the past three years. The operating rates of semi steel tires and all steel tires related to the automobile industry chain increased by 3.0 and 4.5 percentage points respectively month on month. The operating rate of Tangshan blast furnace and coking enterprises related to black goods decreased by 4.0 percentage points and increased by 1.1 percentage points respectively month on month. 3) Industrial inventory differentiation. Among the finished products, the rebar factory warehouse + social warehouse increased by 0.3% month on month, and the electrolytic aluminum inventory decreased by 4.3% month on month. In the raw material inventory, the port iron ore inventory increased by 0.1% compared with last week, and the coking coal inventory of independent coking plant can be used for 15.2 days, down 0.3 days compared with last week. 4) The marginal sales of commercial housing has warmed up, and the land market is still depressed. This week, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 cities stopped falling and warmed up, especially the sales area of commercial housing in first tier cities rebounded significantly. However, the primary land market was still depressed last week. The land supply area and land transaction area of 100 cities decreased by 43.6% and 47.5% month on month respectively, and the absolute level is still at a low level in recent three years. 5) Most of the black commodity futures and spot prices rose. This week, the futures of thermal coal, coking coal, coke, rebar and iron ore rose by 4.4%, 1.8%, 1.2%, 1.2% and 0.8% respectively, and the spot prices of corresponding varieties also rose. This week, the Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) wholesale price 200 index fell 0.1% month on month. In the main Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) , the prices of vegetables and pork rebounded, rising by 2.1% and 1.2% month on month respectively; Fruit and egg prices fell, down 1.3% and 0.7% month on month respectively.
Capital markets: the severe situation of epidemic prevention and control this week has exacerbated the market's concerns about the "stagnation" of the economy, the rise of inflation expectations stimulated by overseas geopolitical conflicts, and the hawkish speech of the Federal Reserve has suppressed risk appetite. Under the triple pressure, China's stocks, bonds and remittances have weakened simultaneously. Specifically, in the money market, R007 and dr007 closed at 2.88% and 2.22% respectively on Friday, up 70.1bp and 15.4bp respectively compared with last Friday. This week, the issuing rate of one-year interbank certificates of deposit of stock banks closed at 2.64%, up 2.0bp from last Friday. In the stock market, all major stock indexes fell, and the growth style fell even more. In the bond market, this week, the yield of one-year treasury bonds rose by 5.3bp, the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds rose by 0.5bp, and the yield curve was flattened. In the foreign exchange market, the onshore and offshore RMB depreciated by 0.02% and 0.3% respectively against the US dollar this week; The US dollar index closed at 98.81, up 0.6% from last Friday.
Risk tip: the steady growth is not as strong as expected, the epidemic situation in China is spreading at multiple points, and geopolitical conflicts are escalating.
