Core view: this round of epidemic situation has many points, a wide range and frequent occurrence, with more than 41000 local infections. We expect that it will drag down the GDP growth rate of 0.5-0.9 percentage points in the first quarter, and the GDP growth rate of the whole year will drop by 0.19-0.34 points. The epidemic will lead to a return of the triple pressure of "shrinking demand, supply shock and weakening expectation". The supply shock is reflected in the impact of labor force, logistics and transportation and industrial chain. The contraction of domestic demand is reflected in the shutdown of investment projects and the reduction of consumption.
Supply shock: (1) it is estimated that more than 40 million people live at home, and the labor shock will affect production activities; (2) The road freight transportation decreased by about 30%, and the container throughput of the eight major coastal ports decreased by about 10%. The impact of logistics transportation made it difficult for raw materials to enter the warehouse and finished products to leave the warehouse, causing enterprises to stop production; (3) The automobile and steel industry chain has been hit hardest, with both supply and demand shrinking. Automobile sales are only 72% of previous years. The operating rate of all steel tires is equivalent to 71% of previous years. The steel output is 92.2% in the same period last year and the demand is 86% of last year.
Contraction of domestic demand: (1) affected by the epidemic, the "gold, silver and four" of real estate is no longer, the sales are reduced by 30%, and the investment is not optimistic; (2) From the high-frequency data, the cement delivery rate decreased by 11 points, the demand for rebar decreased by about 20%, and the risk of shutdown of investment projects was high; (3) Consumption is greatly affected, with a zero growth rate of 6.7% from January to February and 1% - 3% in March.
Risk warning: the epidemic spread and could not be controlled in April; The impact of the epidemic on consumption is based on historical conditions, and other economic conditions have changed, which may be incomparable; The consumption stimulus policy was stronger than expected.
