Investment suggestion: at present, we judge that the A-share market may have bottomed out in 2022, but the market environment is more complex due to high inflation and repeated epidemics. We suggest paying attention to these directions: (1) the theme of “steady growth”. In 2022, the downward pressure on the economy continues to increase and China’s demand is weak. In order to maintain the economic operation in a reasonable range, the national “steady growth” policy may be introduced, and relevant sectors may take the lead. Attention can be paid to infrastructure, building materials and real estate. (2) New economic theme. High end technology manufacturing industry may be an important driving force for future economic growth. It is suggested to pay attention to chip semiconductors and high-end manufacturing with accelerated domestic substitution and rapid growth of the industry. (3) Emerging consumption themes. At present, China’s PPI is at a high level and CPI rises slowly. The subsequent scissors difference between the two is expected to converge, and the industrial profits will shift from the upstream to the middle and downstream. It is expected that there will be some opportunities in the consumer sector. It is suggested to pay attention to food, beverage and household appliances. (4) Epidemic Damage theme. With the increase of vaccination rates in developing countries such as Africa and Mexico, the global epidemic is expected to be further controlled. There is a valuation and repair power in the affected sector of the epidemic, which can be paid attention to: airports, tourism and cinemas.
Focus on hot topics: (1) scattered epidemic situations occur frequently, and the epidemic prevention sector may continue to attract market attention. On March 18, Wang Hesheng, deputy director of the National Health Commission, said that he would adhere to the general strategy of “external defense input and internal defense rebound” and the general policy of “dynamic clearing”. Since March, the epidemic has rebounded in many places in China. Under the guidance of the policy of “dynamic clearing”, the epidemic rate is likely to be controllable, but the overall impact will increase. The relevant sectors such as epidemic prevention materials may continue to receive market attention. The relevant targets include Lanwei medicine and vinozan. (2) The release of the Interim Provisions on the supervision and administration of military equipment procurement contracts may help the rapid development of the military industry sector. On March 19, chairman of the Central Military Commission Xi Jinping signed an order to issue the “Interim Provisions on the supervision and administration of military equipment procurement contracts”. We believe that under this provision, the process mode of military equipment procurement is expected to be further optimized, the quality of military equipment may be further guaranteed, and relevant sectors may usher in rapid development. Relevant targets include Aecc Aviation Power Co Ltd(600893) and Avicopter Plc(600038) etc. (3) Promote the rational return of lithium salt price, strengthen supervision and help the healthy development of middle and downstream industries. In order to ensure the supply and price of lithium resource products and promote the healthy development of new energy vehicles and power battery industry, the Ministry of industry and information technology and other departments recently held a symposium. We believe that with the release of new production capacity, the normalization of overseas epidemic, the continuous progress of lithium extraction technology in salt lakes and policy guidance, the mismatch between supply and demand may gradually improve, the price of lithium salt may gradually stabilize, and lithium batteries, new energy vehicles and other sectors may benefit from it. Relevant targets include Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and Byd Company Limited(002594) etc.
Revenue performance of hot topics: among the hot topics from March 14 to March 18, the top gainers were home textiles, food safety, terahertz box, anti nuclear radiation and ganosine. The main reason is that the relevant sectors are sought after due to the impact of bulk price increases and the Japanese earthquake. The top five decline were shipping, mining services, Baijiu, beverage manufacturing and paper industry. The main reason is that the current valuation of relevant concept sectors is high, and the recent tightening of funds and the adjustment of the impact of scattered epidemic.
From March 14 to March 18, among shenwanyi industries, the top five gainers last week were real estate, building decoration, social services, non bank finance and building materials; The top five declines were stone coal, public utilities, steel, petroleum and petrochemical and environmental protection. From the cumulative net inflow last week, the top five cumulative net inflows are Rong coal, real estate, beauty care, comprehensive and social services. The top five cumulative net outflows are medicine and biology, computers, basic chemicals, non-ferrous metals and mechanical equipment.
Risk warning: the promotion of relevant policies is not as expected; The risk of repeated outbreaks exceeded expectations.
