Since March 2022, the global covid-19 epidemic has rebounded again, mainly in Europe and West The Pacific Securities Co.Ltd(601099) mainly. This round of epidemic rebound is less than one month away from the fourth round of rebound from January to mid February. We also observed that after the improvement of the last round of epidemic, the degree of global epidemic control in late February has dropped to a new low since 2020, and some developed countries have liberalized the restrictive measures for epidemic prevention and control. Therefore, the degree of control is still closely related to the recurrence of the epidemic. China still adheres to the general policy of "dynamic clearing", but seeks to further improve the accuracy of epidemic prevention and control. The liberalization of restrictions in developed countries such as Europe and the United States is mainly related to the increase of national infection rate, the increase of vaccination rate, and the reduction of severe disease rate and mortality caused by Omicron. Epidemic development and prevention and control measures have a significant impact on the macro-economic operation of the world and China. As a macro research, we will closely follow the evolution and opening-up process of the global epidemic.
Since March, the global epidemic has rebounded again. As of March 20, 2022, there were still more than 1 million newly confirmed cases of covid-19 pneumonia in the world. Globally, although the number of new cases in the Americas has declined sharply since February, it has further slowed down since March, maintaining at about 100000; New cases in Europe fell in early February and rebounded again in March. At present, there is no downward trend; West The Pacific Securities Co.Ltd(601099) 1 and February, although the epidemic rebounded slowly, it has entered a state of accelerated rebound since March, forming a resonance with the epidemic in Europe and promoting the rebound of the global epidemic. At present, China's epidemic situation is in a high platform stage, but affected by the high epidemic situation in China's surrounding countries and Hong Kong, there is great pressure on foreign defense input.
The global vaccination structure slowed down. As of March 22, the global total covid-19 vaccination has completed 11.125 billion doses, with 4.506 billion people fully vaccinated, and the covid-19 vaccination amount per 100 people has reached 141.27 doses. Covid-19 vaccination differentiation is still severe. The vaccination times per 100 people in South America and Europe reach 184 and 167 respectively, while the vaccination times per 100 people in Africa is only 32 and the progress is slow. From the perspective of booster, the global vaccination volume of covid-19 vaccine booster per 100 people is 20.27 doses. The vaccination volume of covid-19 vaccine booster per 100 people in the Americas, Oceania and Europe has exceeded the global average, while it is 5.03 doses in middle and low-income countries and only 1.13 doses in Africa.
Globally, the severe situation of covid-19 epidemic has improved. Since Omicron became an epidemic strain, combined with the promotion of global vaccination, the high level of severe covid-19 in most countries has decreased significantly compared with the high level in 2020 and 2021. On March 16, the number of severe cases per million people in the United States was 10.36, showing a steep peak decline since February, which has been lower than the low point in July 2021; In other major European countries with serious outbreaks, such as France, Italy, Germany and Austria, the number of severe cases per million decreased to 24.35, 7.74, 27.08 and 22.45 respectively. According to the Health Commission, as of March 18, the majority of people infected in hospitals in China were light and asymptomatic, accounting for more than 95%, and less than 0.1% were severe and dangerous.
Covid-19 mortality decreased significantly. According to the global deaths and cumulative cases published by who, it can be calculated that as of March 22, the global covid-19 mortality rate was 1.2941%, which has decreased rapidly since January. By stages, the global covid-19 mortality rates in the first half of 2021, the second half of 2021 and January to March 22, 2022 were 2.0683%, 1.4159% and 0.3570% respectively. From January to March 22, 2022, except for Africa, the mortality rate in other major regions has decreased to less than 1%. By country, the covid-19 mortality rate in almost all countries except South Africa decreased compared with the second half of 2021. Except for South Africa, Mexico and Colombia, the mortality rate in other major countries has fallen below 1%. The mortality rate in major European countries such as Germany, France, Italy and the United Kingdom has fallen below 0.3%, and that in the United States is 0.57%.
With the acceleration of global opening up, China adheres to "dynamic clearing". As the toxicity of Omicron strain is relatively mild, the national epidemic control with high vaccination rate and infection rate is gradually liberalized. As of March 11, 2022, the number of countries with a strict index of more than 50 has decreased from 69 on January 7 to 49. In early March, Britain, France, Spain, Denmark and some other European countries gradually lifted epidemic prevention measures. At the same time, Russia and the United States also shortened the period of isolation. However, this is mainly based on the decline of new cases in January. With the rebound of the epidemic in March, it is still necessary to pay attention to the repeatability of control status under the trend of overall control relaxation in Europe and the United States. At present, China still adheres to the general policy of "dynamic clearing". The main reasons are as follows: first, the epidemic situation has rebounded since March, of which more than 40% are concentrated in China's surrounding countries and regions, and there is great pressure on foreign defense input. Second, although the confirmed cases have entered the platform stage, the local asymptomatic infection cases continue to rise to a new high; Third, although the severe and fatal rate of Omicron mutant has decreased, it has strong transmission power. If it is not controlled, there may still be relatively high severe cases and deaths under the high base of China's population. However, due to the uncertain duration of the epidemic in the future, China is also constantly improving the precise prevention and control level of the epidemic to avoid major damage to the economy.
