Industry configuration this week:
Over allocation: real estate, communications, national defense and military industry, medicine and biology, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, non-ferrous metals
Standard configuration: basic chemical industry, food and beverage, textile and clothing, light industry manufacturing, medicine and biology, public utilities, comprehensive, non bank finance, automobile, mechanical equipment, coal, environmental protection, beauty care
Low configuration: steel, building materials, household appliances, petroleum and petrochemical
Performance of industry allocation last week: the absolute return of the portfolio year to date is - 1.54%, compared with the excess return of CSI 300 by 5.89%
Valuation: CSI 300iape fell below the 40th percentile, CSI 300pb fell below the 30th percentile, SSE IAPE fell below the 30th percentile, SSE Pb was at the 10th percentile level, SSE 50iape fell below the 40th percentile, SSE 50pb was close to the 30th percentile line, gem IAPE fell near the 50th percentile, and gem PB fell below the 70th percentile.
The allocation value of stocks relative to bonds is still dominant. Shenwan industry had obvious ups and downs, among which real estate, non bank finance, medicine and biology and social service industries rose last week. Combined with Pb and expected roe, industrial metals, miniled, phosphorus chemical industry, specialized special new and high-end equipment manufacturing have cost performance. Combined with PEG and expected g, network security, lithium batteries, photovoltaic and new energy vehicles have a higher outlook in a reasonable valuation range.
Money & Interest Rate: MLF incremental parity continued, and the short-end capital interest rate decreased slightly
Upstream
The trend of geopolitical conflict is unknown, and the fluctuation of international oil price intensifies
The market price of thermal coal fell, and the tight market supply led to the rise of coke price
Aluminum prices rose again and lithium prices reached a new high
The epidemic restricts logistics and affects the enthusiasm of iron ore procurement
Midstream
The price of steel spot market fluctuated at a high level, and the inventory entered the downward channel
New energy logic continues to improve
The high growth rate of infrastructure investment drives the repair of cement demand
The fall in the high crude oil price led to the overall decline in the price of chemicals
The freight rate of centralized transportation continued to fall, and the short-term demand for express delivery decreased partially in March
Downstream
The meeting of the financial committee of the State Council released a positive signal for the real estate industry
In February, the production and sales of air conditioners rose by more than 10% year-on-year, and the export performance was very strong
Food and beverage fluctuations intensified, and some Baijiu companies raised prices.
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Electronics: local wafer factories continue to expand production, driving the strong demand for upstream equipment
Computer industry: the profitability of the industry continues to decline, reducing market confidence
Media: the meeting of the financial commission stabilized the morale of the Chinese concept stocks, and the game sector rose against the trend
Risk tips: macroeconomic failure to meet the expected risk, monetary policy tightening beyond expectations, certificate risk and bond risk research, research, supervision, reporting and reporting policy exceeding the expected risk, industry prosperity failure to meet the expected risk and stagflation risk
