Since Russia and Ukraine entered the hot war, Russia and Ukraine have conducted several rounds of negotiations, and no substantive progress has been made at present. Moreover, due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the related sanctions of European and American countries, the global financial market has suffered a significant impact recently. Commodity prices soared, and WTI crude oil futures rose to $130 a barrel. However, the two countries released some positive signals in the latest negotiations, and the two sides are ready for a ceasefire and withdrawal plan implemented on the premise of Ukraine's neutrality and disarmament. Investors' panic eased and global stock markets rebounded significantly. In the follow-up, under the pressure of sanctions, Russia's economic outlook is more pessimistic. The EU is facing greater energy pressure, while the direct impact on China and the United States is relatively limited. However, China opposes unilateral sanctions, and the follow-up action of the United States is uncertain. All countries' comprehensive sanctions against Russia may change the original Global trade, economic and financial order. Although the conflict between Russia and Ukraine may prevent the pace of NATO's eastward expansion, the probability of subsequent conflicts in other regions has increased. The supply shortage of energy, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) and other commodities may continue, and the global economic recovery may be disturbed. In addition, the Russian Ukrainian war may interfere with the Fed's monetary policy, and the volatility of global financial markets is expected to continue. In conclusion, we believe that the prices of crude oil, natural gas and other commodities may remain high for some time. The risks of global inflation and economic recession may continue to shock major financial markets. For the industries we cover, automobile and parts, clean energy - natural gas, consumption (clothing, food and beverage / daily necessities, hotels), power, gambling, medicine and communication equipment industries have a negative impact; The impact of cement and building materials, comprehensive, power equipment, environmental protection, infrastructure, port, real estate, shipping logistics and telecommunications services is neutral; Clean energy ( Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) , wind power and others), consumption Retail, machinery, non-ferrous metals, petrochemical and precious metals industries have a positive impact. However, from historical experience, the impact of geopolitical warming usually lasts for a short time, and is mainly reflected in the disturbance to market sentiment. If the situation in Russia and Ukraine does not deteriorate further, its direct impact on the fundamentals of the Hong Kong stock market will be limited. The expectation of overseas monetary tightening, the delisting risk of zhonggai shares and the spread of China's epidemic and other negative factors led to a deep correction of the index. The overall valuation of Hong Kong stocks is very attractive. Subsequently, with the requirements of the meeting of the financial stability Committee of the State Council and the continuous development of China's stable growth policy, and the further clarity of the US interest rate hike, the market is expected to usher in an improvement in sentiment. In the short term, the fluctuation range of HSI is expected to be (2 Shenzhen Tellus Holding Co.Ltd(000025) 000), which is equivalent to the predicted P / E ratio of HSI in 2022 of 9.4-11.8 times. At this stage, we are optimistic about automobile and parts, banking, clean energy (wind power), power equipment, infrastructure, medicine and petrochemical industries
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